Collapsing Downstream Demand Led to Bearish Detergent Alcohol Market at the end of December 2022

Detergent Alcohol prices have been on a declining trend since the first week of December 2022. The fall in procurement from the downstream surfactant and detergent industries has decelerated the market growth of Detergent Alcohol. This year, the prohibition on Indonesian edible oil exports jolted markets and compounded existing global supply constraints brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 restrictions, but it also culminated in a surge in domestic inventories.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price realizations of Detergent Alcohol have plummeted by USD 60 per tonne on a CFR basis. The country's grip over epidemic prevention was lessened, and manufacturing units began to rebuild their inventories, foreseeing the fall in upstream raw material prices. However, the inquiries from downstream surfactant and detergent industries were weak, and the market sentiments for Detergent Alcohol were gradually undermined. Furthermore, the German market for Detergent Alcohol also tumbled at the end of the year. The ChemAnalyst database has shown that the Detergent Alcohol C16-18 prices declined by 1.2% in the week ending December 30, 2022.

On the other hand, Indonesia will tighten up export rules for palm oil from January 1, 2023, by allowing fewer shipments overseas for every tonne sold domestically, aiming to ensure sufficient domestic supply for the manufacturing of Detergent Alcohol and its derivatives. Furthermore, the exporters will only be able to ship six times their domestic sales volume, and it is anticipated that in the coming year, the market is likely to demonstrate robust growth. In addition, Palm Oil producing countries are also preferring to export finished products instead of unprocessed ones, which might limit the supplies for importing nations.

As per ChemAnalyst, the new Indonesian policies will hamper the availability of upstream Palm Oil for the manufacturing of detergents and surfactants. Thus, the prices of Detergent Alcohol are likely to gain upward momentum, backed by rising production costs. In addition, the demand might improve and support the elevated pricing dynamics of Detergent Alcohol in the forthcoming weeks.