The cocoa market is in line for a modest uplift in October 2025 with Abidjan FOB prices expected to rise because of constraining supplies, tight global demand, and transportation problems. Precocious arrival at Ivorian ports has been less than year ago, with total arrival roughly 10% less than year to date now, showing unseasonal weather and strain in trees from previous season. The buyers are reportedly reporting delayed bean deliveries and fierce fighting among buyers as stocks are constricting. New York and London cocoa futures are firm worldwide against a persistent supply shortage and European and North American demand for high-quality chocolate. Three factors have driven the rally, analysts say: tight local supplies, firm international prices, and positive exchange rate. Although possible rain and logistics issues may add volatility, sentiment remains bullish. Côte d'Ivoire's dominance in the market means global focus is on its exports as prices will keep appreciating in October.
The cocoa market is in the way of a steady rise of nearly 4% in October 2025, with FOB cocoa bean prices, in line to increase under the pressure of swelling supply limitation, unrelenting worldwide demand, and continuing logistical issues. Industry practitioners and market experts predict that the world's largest cocoa producer is still under the grip of strong to higher prices as domestic and international forces compete to provide positive thrust.
FOB cocoa prices were already robust in September, supported by concerns regarding bean deficiency at the beginning of the 2025–2026 main crop season, Abidjan exporters and traders report. While the main crop season historically starts in October, early arrivals in Ivorian ports have been lower than year-earlier, due to volatile rains and residual impacts of last season's unfavorable weather on trees.
“The flow of beans to the ports has been slower than expected,” said various market experts across the region.
Total arrivals from mid-September to early October were approximately 10% down year-on-year. Buyers are snapping up aggressively offered stock since inventories are tight after several months of sizeable drawdowns, particularly as foreign buyers front-load for the confectionery festive season when demand is expected to be firmer.
Globally, the New York and London cocoa futures markets have been in a bull climate, where speculators are viewing the consistent structural shortage of cocoa supply globally. Favorable processing margins and growing consumer demand for high-quality and sustainably sourced chocolate in Europe and North America are also supporting markets.
Analysts expect FOB prices at Abidjan to keep rising steadily during October on the basis of three factors: local supply tightness, firm international futures levels, and a friendly exchange rate regime. Moreover, ongoing investment in port infrastructure by the Ivorian government and export facilitation measures have raised efficiency to a point where exporters have been able to negotiate good premiums on good-quality beans.
But logistical and climatic threats could increase the volatility of cocoa prices. Sudden rains during harvest or road transport disruptions would also further limit beans' arrival at export terminals, tightening the market further.
"Although the overall sentiment remains in sellers' favor, volatility cannot be eliminated," warned an analyst of a regional investment firm. "But with structural imbalances and strong seasonally-driven demand for cocoa, obviously there is a bias for prices to be higher in the month."
As Côte d'Ivoire maintains its massive market share in international cocoa, everyone's focus will stay on Abidjan export volumes and rainfall in the massive production areas. For now, however, traders all agree on one point: October 2025 is shaping up to be a bullish month for West Africa's economic giant's cocoa beans.
