Crude Oil Prices to Decline in the Second Week of October 2025 as Global Oversupply Builds

Crude oil prices maintained their decline during the second full week of October 2025, with Brent dropping 3.6% a barrel and WTI slipping 2.1% a barrel. Rising U.S.-China trade tensions, as President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods following Beijing’s a rare-earth mineral export restriction, sent U.S. crude oil futures tumbling, deepening global growth concerns. U.S. stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, and refinery throughputs declined to 15.1 million barrels per day at 85.7% utilization. Gasoline and distillate output fell to 9.4 million and 4.6 million barrels per day respectively, while imports fell to 878,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ added 137,000 bpd, further exacerbating oversupply, and Russian deliveries plunged to a four-week low of 2.72 million bpd. Demand softened to 20.9 million barrels per day for U.S. products supplied and gasoline fell by 0.6%. ChemAnalyst says potential Iranian sanctions may neutralize the losses, but IEA’s 700,000 bpd demand forecast means volatility ahead.