Crude oil prices increased at a higher rate by 4.1% WTI crude reached a high in the last week of January 2026 as markets struggled to come to terms with tightening supply and elevated risk premiums. The biggest short-term catalyst was Winter Storm Fern, which shut in about 15% of US crude production and led to a temporary halt to exports along the Gulf Coast, tightening the supply of barrels and driving prices higher. And geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated with heightened military presence and political threats fuelling concerns of disruption of supplies - especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit point for global oil flows. Supply concerns on a broader level such as outages in Kazakhstan and tighter Russian export sanctions, further limited the market. Official figures also revealed a decline in US commercial crude inventories, strengthening the view of a balance that is becoming increasingly tighter.
