In early December, transpacific container spot rates have shown a tentative rate rebound that masks a still fragile backdrop. Spot prices from main Chinese and East Asian load ports to the United States West Coast have risen by roughly 7%-8% compared with the previous week, lifting all in rates to about USD 2100 - USD 2300 per 40 feet container, while East Coast routes have nudged up into the high USD 2800-USD 3000 range.
Carriers have deserted conventional pattern rate schedules that included infrequent large general rate increases and switched instead to more frequent and smaller rate increases on prime Transpacific routes. As per these developments, carriers are employing a strategy that aims at developing spot rate momentum before competition pushes back in a low-demand environment. Early December daily rate prints showed additional modest gains for Transpacific west coast bookings and steadier east coast levels, though some market sources remain cautious about the sustainability of these increases once year- end seasonal cargo tapers.
Despite this uptick, the broader context is also challenging. Prior to this rebound, there were steep declines from earlier spikes driven by supply distortions such as diversions around the Red Sea. Capacity returning to main east-west routes diminished the scarcity premium, pushing several spot rate benchmarks toward multi-month lows. Those declines underlined how quickly underlying rates can fall when capacity is ahead of demand.
Demand indicators are still soft compared with seasonal averages. Container imports into the U.S. have continued on a year-over-year decline, with market sentiment driven by uncertainties surrounding tariffs and retailer behaviour dampening cargo demand. The Transpacific string continues to wait for meaningful restocking volumes from North American importers and, as a result, has hampered carriers efforts to turn tactical rate changes into market support. Forecasts for early 2026 on the Transpacific service indicate additional vessel share.
The tariff environment between the United States and China continued to play a background role in carrier and shipper planning. Trade policy changes announced in late October, and early November provided some relief by suspending or reducing specific reciprocal port fee measures for a year, creating some cost and booking certainty. Nonetheless, a high tariff Floor of about 10 percent and additional duties as high as 25 percent on most Chinese imports have been maintained and continue to suppress demand. The dynamics created have caused cautious inventory buying on most importers in United States, and thus spot market performance on the Transpacific container market continues to be suppressed compared to other routes.
On the pricing front, some carriers filed additional general rate increases and corridor-specific surcharges expected to take effect later in December, particularly for Asia–Europe services where contract season demand is stronger. These filings underscore a continued focus on contractual price floors and yield protection as carriers head into 2026 negotiations. Meanwhile, Transpacific rate filings are being set with care-small incremental adjustments to avoid sharp disconnects with transactional reality.
Over the coming weeks, Transpacific is likely to be finely balanced between tactical rate uplifts and fundamentally soft demand. Carriers should have capacity discipline as a focus of targeted sailings and vessel utilization based on bookings, and not as an overall capacity offering. Pricing actions should be based on an increment specific to each corridor and short validity period so as not to risk losing contract business. Emphasising service reliability, schedule integrity, and premium freight options will help capture higher value cargo in an environment where broad volume growth remains uncertain. Not least, watching the evolving tariff landscape, as well as any shifts in sourcing away from China to Southeast Asian origins, will be important for adjusting port rotations and network planning without adding fresh overcapacity
