Early in May, the global ethanol market mirrored divergent trends of the major economies, with the United States witnessing a sharp spike in demand, Brazil accelerating output at the start of its fresh cane grinding season, and China still showing price stability as it responds to subdued downstream consumption and varying feedstock conditions.

In the US, demand for ethanol saw a sharp increase after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a nationwide waiver allowing year-round sales of E15 fuel. The action, aimed at lowering gasoline prices and encouraging cleaner fuels, is likely to boost ethanol use by almost 50% during the summer driving season. Consequently, U.S. ethanol producers increased production, with output averaging 1.04 million barrels per day for the week ended April 26—5.1% more than last year's same week. Additionally, March exports jumped to a record 195.8 million gallons, the second-highest monthly export volume in history. Nigeria's re-emergent interest in implementing an E10 blending mandate fueled the increase in shipments. This pick-up in foreign demand, together with favorable planting weather forecasts for corn, underlay a positive atmosphere in U.S. ethanol markets.

Brazil, however, began the 2025–26 sugarcane crop on a strong production basis. UNICA reports that cane crushing during early April amounted to 17.8 million tons, which translated into a 918-million-liter ethanol production—a 11.5% year-over-year increase. Consequently, corn ethanol production grew more than 41%, backed by recent capacity expansion and continued domestic fuel demand. Increasing Brazil's mandatory ethanol content to 30% from 27% was being considered, backing long-term growth projections. The National Energy Policy Council is forecasting a 30% growth in demand for ethanol by 2034 as the key drivers being domestic policy and global decarbonization goals. This, in addition to flex-fuel vehicle use and rising biofuel exports, kept Brazil's ethanol sector steadily rising.

Chinese ethanol prices were steady for the week. Major Asian industry players reported that although prices fell 13% year over year, the market remained firm despite tightening supply following the shutdown of dominant ethanol production facilities in Jilin and Guangxi provinces. Ethanol production facilities were closed primarily due to increasing water pollution issues in Jilin. Feedstock trends were mixed: corn prices rose modestly in Guangxi but declined in Shandong, limiting any uniform cost pressure on ethanol producers.

Looking forward to mid-May, the ethanol market will most probably remain regionally divided. Trends in the U.S. and Brazil appear bullish on the strength of rising fuel demand and supportive policies, while China's market will most probably remain flat unless demand fundamentals improve significantly.