During the second week of October 2025, the global ethylene market experienced diverging trends across the primary regions. In China, inventory build-up after the holiday season, strengthened imports, and lower downstream consumption of related products, despite agricultural film demand, pushed prices down 0.6% lower than the previous week. Additionally, the discounting offered by prospective sellers saw WTI crude oil prices fall. On the other hand, the price of ethylene in the U.S. rose by 4.6% because of a tighter supply environment, increased natural gas feedstock costs by 1.9%, and firm demand from the packaging, consumer products, and industrial sectors, even as exports to Asia and Europe were reported steady. In Germany, the ethylene price fell 0.6% with downstream consumption muted, naphtha costs stable, and the market balancing between soft and moderate demand. The global ethylene market ended the reporting period consistent with similar trends between regional specificity and context. Clearly, the U.S. was experiencing bullish market momentum grounded in cost and demand factors, while Asia followed an oversupply trend, and the European market remained cautious to soft depending on downstream or naphtha tracking.
During the second week of October 2025, there were different trends on the global ethylene market as prices decreased in China and Germany, while they strengthened in the United States. Ethylene market direction was heavily influenced by regional differences in supply and demand dynamics, feedstock costs, and downstream demand.
In China, CFR Ethylene prices fell by 0.6%, reflecting weak overall sentiment after the National Day holidays. There were more inventories and rising imports since the National Day holiday, which added pressure to local prices. WTI crude oil prices also fell and reduced cost support for polyethylene (PE) production, leading to a bearish market tone across the spot market. Demand from downstream processors had been weak in comparison to prior years, and most buyers are only taking commercially driven actions to replenish existing inventories, rather than pursuing a new sourcing strategy.
The ethylene supply continued to be influenced by elevated imports. Launched 4Q PE plants in these regions encouraged growth in global supply, complicating the supply side dynamic. In addition, regional freight prices fell 9%, which lowered logistics expenses, promoting import stimulation. Increased supply, weaker crude pricing and defensive demand posture added to the overall weakness in the market during the week.
In comparison, the United States recorded a remarkable 4.6% rise in ethylene prices over the same timeframe. The factors behind the ethylene price increase included tighter supply conditions and stronger domestic demand associated with an increase of 1.9% in natural gas prices, the primary feedstock for producing ethylene. Overall production levels remained stable, while feedstock costs remained elevated, reducing producer margins and disincentivizing additional supply. Inventory levels were managed conservatively as manufacturers avoided stock-building, given cost inflation, and a strong demand from downstream customers.
Demand in the U.S. remained healthy and particularly strong for polyethylene derivatives such as LLDPE Film Butene-based, LDPE Film, HDPE Blowmolding, and Injection Moulding grades. The packaging, consumer goods, and industrial sectors continued to grow at strong rates, combined with solid export demand. In summary, the combination of strong domestic consumption and export trends helped fortify price increases, and we view the ethylene market in the U.S. as tightening.
In the same vein, Germany reported a 0.6% drop in ethylene pricing throughout the week due to a comparatively slow market, as domestic demand remained weak in LLDPE Film, HDPE Blow Moulding, and Injection grades while feedstock naphtha was stable and there was no upward movement in prices. Moreover, production was consistent from the week before and stock levels were generally managed to align with slowing downstream uptake. The overall tone of the ethylene market was very cautious, with buyers being slightly more conservative than usual with economic uncertainty as well as demand remaining slow.
Global ethylene prices are likely to experience mixed developments in the upcoming weeks. The U.S market is likely to continue to see firm upwards momentum amid strong demand and higher feedstock costs, while Asia and Europe ethylene prices are likely to see further downward pressure due to generally ample supply, weak demand and low weak crude oil market fundamentals.
