The global ammonia market ended August 1, 2025, mostly bullish, driven by supply constraints, higher feedstock costs, and logistical disruptions in key regions. China, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and the U.S. saw strong gains, while India remained stable amid balanced fundamentals and steady production. Regional trends reflected differing supply-demand dynamics.
The worldwide Ammonia market ended the week to August 1, 2025, on a broad bull bias, though regional differences underlined the interaction between supply shortages, feedstock price trends, and changing patterns of demand.
In China, aqueous Ammonia prices were supported, courtesy of tightening inventories at production facilities and sustained growth in domestic industrial demand. Although the fertilizer sector improved marginally—compound fertiliser output was low and downstream derivative urea consumption remained firm. Further, producers held firm on offers, contributing to the prevailing bullish trend irrespective of subdued agricultural pull.
Ammonia prices in Saudi Arabia saw a steep rise, synchronizing with intensified buying from European purchasers as the Togliatti–Odesa pipeline remained shut. This redirection of demand added to the burden on already tight domestic supply. Additional support came from fluctuating freight costs and high domestic export financing rates for sellers, which induced repricing of offer levels to maintain margins. On the demand side, consistent pull from major fertilizer producers, along with opportunistic purchases by industrial customers looking to lock up volumes prior to possible supply tightness, supported the bullish attitude within the market.
Further, the European market for Ammonia also progressed firmly, helped by stronger feedstock natural gas prices and a softer euro. Inland shipping was interrupted by low levels of the Rhine River, provoking freight premiums and transport delays. While farm demand was seasonally weak, demand from developing green ammonia applications supported consumption, further expanding the supply–demand imbalance.
In the U.S. Gulf market, CFR Tampa price for Ammonia benchmarks had a sharp surge as feedstock prices and supply shortages escalated. A newly concluded contract by a major Norwegian producer with a U.S. fertilizer manufacturer created a bullish tone. Geopolitical tensions such as drone attacks on Russian facilities and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea cut off alternative routes, narrowing global availability. While fertiliser demand eased seasonally, other industrial buyers continued steady buying.
India's Anhydrous Ammonia market, on the other hand, remained quiet over the same time frame. There was sufficient feedstock gas supply and smooth dispatches by major producers supporting consistent production levels. The coming of the end of the Kharif planting season softened farm demand, and the majority of buyers settled for conservative, smaller-size purchases, exerting downward pressure on the overall Ammonia demand. This balanced supply-demand situation, supported by stable production economics, kept market fundamentals in balance and avoided drastic moves.
Looking ahead, as per ChemAnalyst market sentiment for Ammonia are expected to remain generally firm, with cost pressures, supply chain disruptions, and selective regional demand strength set to drive the bullish trend in various major Ammonia markets. Balanced regions like India will, however, be range-bound in the immediate term.
