The international coffee market was under bearish pressure up to the end of June 2025, with key producers such as Brazil, Colombia, and Thailand reporting declining prices. India, though also under pressure, experienced a marginal decrease only as local issues tempered a sharper fall.
In Brazil, prices of Robusta coffee fell to a five-and-a-half-month low as the harvesting activity picked up. Through June, 23.4% of the country's Robusta crop had been gathered, and robust yields pushed the market into oversupply. Farmers selling more, driven by liquidity demands, and driven by their needs for liquidity, may continue to press prices down in the near term, traders and analysts commented. Arabica coffee has also experienced bearish attitudes as heavy June rainfalls eased previous dryness worries to improve crop conditions. Additional dry weather predictions in major growing areas are likely to assure an unbroken harvest, providing more supply to the market.
Colombia's coffee prices are under pressure too, in the midst of seasonal harvest activity in its southern departments such as Cauca, Huila, Nariño, and Tolima. Whereas the 50th anniversary of Colombian coffee culture was held in Calarcá from June 20–30 during the National Coffee Festival, the higher harvest levels have contributed to global supply, sustaining the bearish trend.
Comparatively, the Indian coffee industry saw prices fall by only a marginal amount. But prospects for the 2024–25 crop are growing more uncertain. The nation's leading coffee-producing state is Karnataka, which had excess June rains—especially in Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan districts. Chikkamagaluru alone received, 121% above average rains, while Kodagu and Hassan had 54% and 38% excess rains, respectively.
Growers have seen extreme damage to the crop, such as extensive berry drop and fungal diseases such as black root rot and coffee rot. Infrastructure damage has also been extreme, with shade trees being blown over by high winds and farm equipment being knocked about. Yield loss has been estimated as ranging from 40–60%. Due to the consistent downpours the growers are unable to use plant protection sprays timely making them cautious of the crop yield.
As per the ChemAnalyst, anticipation the global Coffee market is expected to remain Volatile. Market analysts predict that India is poised to suffer from a possible production shortfall, global coffee balances could change over the next few months to potentially alleviate the existing oversupply pressure. In the meantime, though, the ample availability from Brazil and Colombia continues to place pressure on world prices.
