In the first half of May, international diesel prices were in a general downtrend, led by regional price corrections, refinery outages, and shifting flows of trade. The market was impacted by a combination of supply-side restraints and softening demand in several regions. While some nations saw minimal price rises, the overall global trend was weak, with cost relief felt at the pump in major consumer markets.

In Brazil, diesel plummeted across all regions in the first half of May. According to sources, this followed the third official fuel price cut by Petrobras in 2025, which was passed on to consumers to a large extent. Both the regular diesel and the S-10 type plummeted in a national trend, with the most dramatic falls posted in the South. The South also posted the lowest national average prices. At the same time, the North continued to have the highest average prices even though there were moderate declines. Other states like Acre remained at the top when it came to fuel prices, while the Alagoas and Pernambuco states led in the largest declines. Amazonas stood out, where the price of diesel went up slightly, to be the only region with a price rise in both types of diesel.

In Europe, diesel demand kept moving away. EU and UK imports in April—having an influence on the May supply scenario—dropped because deliveries from usual sources such as the Middle East and India decreased. Maintenance at major Saudi Arabian and Indian refineries limited production. Indian shipments declined sharply on a monthly and yearly basis mainly due to turnaround at refineries as well as strong domestic consumption. At the same time, the Mideast Gulf, although a main supplier, experienced lower flows, with restricted arbitrage opportunities and geopolitical threats around the route transit points such as Bab el-Mandeb. US imports remained muted with volumes still much below 2024. Spain was the leading importer, most probably due to the local refinery shutdowns for maintenance.

Germany experienced its first significant increase in diesel imports since February as customers filled tanks with previous price declines. Nevertheless, diesel market share declined still in the German vehicle market. Strong demand in battery electric vehicles during early 2025 resulted in a visible decline in diesel car sales in the EU. Germany, France, and Italy experienced some of the biggest contractions as diesel market share fell to historic lows.

Russian exports of diesel and gasoil fell in April on account of routine maintenance at refineries during the season and expectations of increased domestic consumption for the summer period. Even with continuous exports to Turkey and Brazil, overall exports were lower, with African countries also taking reduced volumes. Reports also indicated rising ship-to-ship transfer off Cyprus as traders attempted to circumvent tighter sanctions.

Diesel prices in Brazil should stabilize after recent cuts by Petrobras, although more cuts will likely be conditional on crude trends abroad. In Europe, tight supply caused by refinery maintenance as well as curtailed imports from India and the Middle East could maintain prices firm despite subdued demand. In Russia, exports fell amid seasonal maintenance as well as increasing domestic requirements, which could cap global supply. Internationally, diesel markets can continue to be sensitive to geopolitics, changes in refining capacities, and shifting patterns of demand.