Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices in the United States and China dipped during the initial half of October 2025 before steadying by the third week. Firm supply and subdued demand in key downstream sectors maintained market sentiment on tenterhooks and pricing directions under tight pressure.
China's Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices dropped in the initial half of October 2025 before steadying around the third week. The bearish trend was fuelled by oversupply and poor demand. The principal feedstock, ethylene, traced a downward trend that relaxed production costs and maintained stable operating margins. Improved industrial performance and better throughput in major production areas maintained a sound supply base for LLDPE.
Supply chain performance also improved, with decreased lead times and enhanced vendor coordination offering guaranteed availability. There was no disruption, and inventory was well-managed, keeping pace with demand and preventing overstocking.
On the other hand, LLDPE demand remained soft. While 12.9% growth in vehicle sales led converters to maintain short cycle purchasing, automotive applications continued to limit LLDPE absorption. Construction activity remained weak with business activity index falling short of 50, which showed reduction in infrastructure and residential projects. Demand for packaging was steady but lacked momentum, with restocking being limited to low-priced volumes.
Export sentiment was mixed with Vietnam as some kind of strength while Thailand and India were cautious. By week three, downstream buyers were putting off purchases and inventories were mounting, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the LLDPE market, and putting a top on any price upward move.
In the US, LLDPE prices also followed suit— declining through until early October and then stabilising into the third week. Supply was firm, supported by ongoing domestic production and manageable input costs. Although ethylene prices rose, most producers utilized previously agreed low-priced stocks, easing the pressure on margins.
The general manufacturing industry continued to grow, with a supportive environment for LLDPE production. Weather was good, and no plant shutdowns were experienced, and operations were uneventful. Tariff-induced vendor delays increased but had an immaterial impact on supply flows.
On the demand side, a 13.91% fall in vehicle sales led OEMs to cut production, lowering resin intake for automotive use. Building activity also slowed, with 2% fewer new project starts, restraining demand for LLDPE in piping and vapor barrier applications. Export demand was soft as well, with gains in Canada offset by losses in Brazil and Mexico. Buyers in each market favoured short cycle buying, anticipating further price movement.
In the short term, China and U.S. LLDPE markets are expected to continue to bear pressure from conservative downstream buying and short visibility. While supply chains remain stable and feedstock prices low, demand recovery is contingent on the revival of construction and automobile markets. While year-end approaches, buyers will be inclined towards carrying on with conservative buying trends through focus on inventory control over expansion. Unless consumption patterns change dramatically, LLDPE prices are likely to stay range-bound throughout the rest of the quarter.
