During the week ending 26 September 2025, Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices eased in China and Germany due to oversupply and poor demand, while the U.S. market was stable. In all markets, restrained downstream activity and cautious buying were still prevalent.
In China, LLDPE prices slipped owing to an excess-burdened market with conservative sentiment from downstream players. Despite anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, follow-through on new orders remained meagre. Traders actively cleared stock, but downstream users were not keen on taking delivery of goods, resulting in lower-than-expected growth in demand.
On the cost side, higher global crude oil prices— underpinned by declining U.S. commercial inventories and diplomatic tensions driven by Russian–Ukrainian hostilities—gave some support. Nonetheless, this was not enough to counter weak fundamentals. As a result, the Chinese LLDPE market traded in a narrow range, with prices declining gently under the pressure of subdued demand.
Similarly, German LLDPE prices moved lower during the week driven by a continued imbalance between supply and demand. Stocks in the region remained high, prompting sellers to adopt more flexible prices to generate interest. Additionally, a steady stream of competitively priced U.S. and Middle East imports, further undermined domestic price levels.
On the demand side, converters showed no desperation to accumulate LLDPE inventory, blaming weak demand from key end-use markets. Packaging marketplaces remained weak, and construction-related usage was in no mood to lift, maintaining overall offtake low.
The gap between demand and supply led to additional price loss, with players noting that unless fourth-quarter demand improves, negotiations for contracts could be driven lower. Underlying oversupply and lack of downstream drivers made it a tough period for LLDPE marketers, who are being forced to cut prices in a bid to maintain market share.
On the other side, U.S. LLDPE prices remained stable, underpinned by balanced fundamentals, and lacked momentum due to weak downstream consumption. Supply in all grades was adequate and feedstock ethylene prices were steady, offering no cost support.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions lingered to keep consumer spending at bay, keeping demand in significant end-use markets in leash. Buyers and sellers behaved cautiously, holding back to meet short-term needs, and avoiding speculative purchases. Despite the absence of price action, sentiment remained tenuous, with market participants monitoring economic statistics and inventory trends closely.
Looking ahead, China, Germany, and U.S. LLDPE markets are expected to remain under pressure. In China, post-holiday led demand may lend some near-term support, but oversupply and guarded buying will cap any price increase. Germany still faces downside risk until packaging and construction segments show some signs of recovery. In the U.S., LLDPE prices can stabilize but remain vulnerable to movements in macroeconomic variables and consumer confidence.
Without a clear downstream activity boost or supply disruption, LLDPE prices are likely to trade in a narrow range into October, with caution being the overarching sentiment in global markets.
