Mustard oil prices are likely to firm internationally in June 2025, following a sharp rise in India in May. Restraint in domestic supply, increased demand from bulk buyers, and speculative expectations of crop output reduction have increased prices, with market players referring to a tightening up of Mustard oil, prices in key consumer markets ahead.

In May 2025, India, the world's leading producer of mustard seeds and a major consumer of mustard oil, experienced a robust increase in both mustard seed and mustard oil prices. Benchmark market prices of mustard seeds in India remain high month after month. Traders and processors attributed delayed arrivals of major producing states like Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, along with consistent domestic demand, as major factors behind the price rally.

The Indian market seems to be having an impact on world sentiments despite the fact that mustard oil holds quite a niche position in the global vegetable oil space. Global vegetable oil prices collectively declined 3.7% in May, according to the UN FAO Food Price Index. The decline was dominated by negative palm, soybean, and sunflower oil prices. Mustard oil is bucking that trend, however, across much of the regional market because of restrictive seed availability and higher procurement prices forcing prices up.

Industry sources are showing that South Asian and Middle East mustard oil prices can look to India, especially if Indian procurement and Black Sea area purchases become stronger in the weeks ahead. With the cautious monitoring of Canadian, Ukrainian, and EU planting and harvesting patterns—other significant mustard seed producers—global supply-side uncertainties are gaining traction as a consideration in determining trader sentiment. Market analysts also point out that inflationary patterns in agro-input prices such as fertilizers, diesel, and labor costs are affecting oilseed processing margins and upstreaming prices. Further, a mild rebound in crude oil prices is likely to propel biodiesel blending demand in certain markets, thereby supporting total vegetable oil consumption.

Looking forward to June, traders expect sustained firmness in mustard oil prices, especially in markets highly dependent on Indian or localized mustard oil supplies. While general vegetable oil prices might remain mixed based on macroeconomic factors and trade policy, the limited global supplies of mustard oil and seasonally firm demand prospects indicate a likely sustained uptrend.

In conclusion, after witnessing a strong domestic rally in May, India’s mustard oil market is now influencing global pricing trends. With key producing regions facing uncertain crop prospects and downstream demand recovering steadily, mustard oil prices are expected to remain firm globally in June 2025.