As the global logistics sector progresses further into the month of January 2026, the ocean freight sector finds itself at odds with spot rates reaching dizzying heights and weak spot demand. The week ending January 16, 2026, has experienced a combination of factors, including a punishing freeze in Northern Europe coupled with rising military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sea of chaos for global shippers. As the Lunar New Year (LNY), which begins on February 17, 2026, fast approaches, the annual buildup to this holiday has been put into chaos with these aforementioned supply chain issues, thereby pushing spot rates well into the upside. According to data, spot prices for Asia/Europe routes now start at $3,300/FEU, with Asia/Med routes rising to $4,400/FEU, up 15% to 20% for the week.
The physical logistics have been adversely affected due to a huge winter storm that is current in Northern Europe. It has made inland operations almost impossible due to intensities of the weather that are affecting areas around Hamburg and Rotterdam ports. All terminals have experienced delays to a large extent at 48-72 hours. Train cancellations have also left thousands of containers to be stranded for destinations in Europe. It is serving like a constraint to capacity due to removal of 5-8% space available to utilize in export vessels.
“The regulatory environment has become the biggest cause of long-term concern,” while in Washington, “The Tariff War” is at a decisive phase of its legal process. According to a market report, it was expected that the Supreme Court would rule on “Liberation Day” tariffs, which were introduced in April of this year, but the court was unable to deliver a verdict on Friday. This puts more than 1,000 entities in a situation of uncertainty, as these organizations are demanding refunds worth billions of dollars. To this end, it was threatened that additional tariffs of 25% will disrupt the delicate balance of the US-China trade truce, which handles $500 billion of bilateral trade per year.
Simultaneously, tensions in the Middle East have escalated to their highest point in years. Iran has explicitly threatened to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway through which nearly 20% of the world's oil and a significant volume of containerized goods pass. Any closure or severe restriction here would be catastrophic, stretching global fleet capacity far beyond the breaking point. Despite these risks, Maersk has announced the addition of 2 new trans-Suez sailings, a calculated risk to maintain schedule reliability, though this adds significant war risk premiums to freight invoices.
Looking toward the next 3 to 4 weeks, shippers should brace for extreme volatility. Spot rates will likely peak in the first week of February, potentially hitting $3,500/FEU for North Europe and $5,000/FEU for the Mediterranean as the LNY cutoff approaches. However, the market faces a binary outcome post-February 17. If the Strait of Hormuz remains open and the Supreme Court rules against the administration, rates could crash back to late-2025 loss of $1,500/FEU rapidly. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions result in actual vessel attacks or expanded trade wars, the "risk premium" will become the new floor, keeping rates elevated regardless of the weak demand forecast.
