Hormuz Attacks Persist as Red Sea Surcharges Become Structural

Middle East Ocean Freight Update: August 13 – August 17, 2026

The security situation in the Hormuz Strait rapidly deteriorated as the weekend approached. The UAE’s national oil company, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), had one of its vessels attacked in the strategically important strait on Friday, August 14. The attack on the vessel came at a time when three other vessels of ADNOC were also reported to have been attacked.

Paradoxically, Iran and Oman have agreed on a new map of the shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz as early as August 15. This bilateral plan is supposed to serve the purpose of protecting commercial ships from any dangers. However, given that attacks on the ships were taking place during that exact same period, there is doubt regarding the real usefulness of this plan.

Meanwhile, the Red Sea shipping crisis has officially crossed the 1,000-day mark, prompting major ocean carriers to treat the disruption as a permanent structural reality rather than a temporary emergency.

The shipping company Maersk has introduced a two-tier system of Emergency Contingency Surcharge for the shipment of goods from Oceania-Middle East region. Under this latest tariff, customers will have to pay a surcharge which is 100% higher than the usual fee if their cargo is delivered to ports in the Red Sea like Jeddah. By embedding such a large risk surcharge within the normal freight rate itself, the carriers are indicating that there will be an indefinite continuation of this security differential. The constant diversion of ships around the Cape of Good Hope is using up 5-7% of the world’s container carrying capacity and raising freight rates by 25-40%.

Short-term prospects for Middle East ocean shipping feature strong persistence of volatility and cost inflationary pressures. Ship owners need to expect that the adoption of two-tier pricing scheme by large shipping lines will become an industry norm soon, thus making the cost of shipping to the Red Sea much higher than the cost of Gulf shipping. In addition, although the newly introduced shipping map between Iran and Oman provides a basis for safe navigation through the Hormuz Strait, the continuing attacks on oil tankers show that physical risks cannot be overlooked.