For the first week of July 2026, the Middle East’s maritime environment remains as complex as ever before. Despite some success in diplomacy making it easier for business to go on in the region.
Weekly Ocean Freight Update – June 30 to July 7, 2026
For the first week of July 2026, the Middle East’s maritime environment remains as complex as ever before. Despite some success in diplomacy making it easier for business to go on in the region, shipping firms across the globe are still maintaining their defensive postures because of the persistent security problems in both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Hormuz Transits Rise Under Heavy Escort
As a result of the recent memorandums of understanding, there have been indications of a possible recovery in terms of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent maritime monitoring showed 70 escorted commercial ships passing through the chokepoint in the 72-hour period ending July 5. Moreover, shipping activity between Iran and Qatar resumed on July 5 after a five-month hiatus.
However, the threat level at the chokepoint remains substantial. The southern transit route has been expanded, but authorities continue to warn of a significant mine danger area within the pre-conflict traffic separation scheme. Consequently, major ocean operators, including Maersk, remain hesitant. The carrier noted this week that while recent diplomatic developments are positive, the situation remains unpredictable, and a largescale return of their vessels will only occur when conditions are unequivocally proven safe.
Red Sea Violence Flares
In light of the focus on the Strait of Hormuz, there is an apparent decline in security within the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden regions. This week saw an assault on a cargo ship by some people in skiffs near the coast of Yemen, which is located in the southern Red Sea. On July 5, 2026, a bulk carrier reported an armed assault approximately 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeida, Yemen. Although the season of monsoons has begun, during which the threat of piracy is normally low because of the poor weather conditions for smaller boats, the gangs are still able to conduct their aggressive assaults using close approaches.
July Surcharges and Rate Peaks
The operational friction in the Middle East continues to drive global freight costs upward as Q3 begins. Benchmark spot rates have reached a 22-month high, driven by the structural capacity absorbed by the prolonged African detours and an early peak season volume rush.
Carriers are ramping up their efforts with the introduction of new charges for July. As of July 1, shippers will be hit by new rounds of Peak Season Surcharge (PSS), Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS) reflecting rising costs in aviation and maritime bunker fuel, and new terminal handling charges due to congested ports. There is extreme space availability from China and Southeast Asia, with a shortage of 40ft containers.
Short-Term Future Outlook
The short-term forecast for July is still very difficult. The small rise in Hormuz sailings does not indicate a return to business as usual. Global lines will continue to use the Cape of Good Hope route for major sailings, thus keeping capacity tight and voyage times high. Customers will need to book their space three weeks ahead of time, pay July surcharges, and be sure that their marine cargo insurance has war risk coverage for their cargoes if they are sailing close to the Arabian Peninsula.
