Crude oil markets are set for a sharp rise in March 2026 as escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupts key supply routes and heightens geopolitical risk. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vital for nearly one fifth of global crude and gas flows, has stranded more than 150 vessels and halted tanker traffic, pushing Brent futures above USD 75 per barrel, their highest in months. US crude benchmarks also strengthened on fears of prolonged supply shortages, especially after two tankers were struck off Oman and major shipping lines suspended regional transits. Saudi Aramco has begun rerouting shipments, but broader disruptions to crude, diesel, and jet fuel flows continue to elevate risk premiums. In the US, crude prices were already firm through February, supported by refinery demand and a 9 million barrel inventory draw. WTI rose from USD 60.00/MT to USD 64.00/MT, with additional support from falling gasoline stocks and evolving European policies on Russian maritime services.
