Jet Kerosene ATF Prices Slide in India Amid Seasonal Lull and Comfortable Inventories

Jet Kerosene ATF Prices Slide in India Amid Seasonal Lull and Comfortable Inventories

Bob Duffler 14-Jul-2025

Jet kerosene (Aviation turbine fuel, or ATF) prices in India further weakened in June 2025 on the back of a mix of muted seasonal demand and well-supplied domestic market. The decline, which had started in May, was supported by pre-monsoon rains that reduced air travel and general mobility nationwide, leading to a sharp drop in total fuel consumption.

According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India witnessed a 4.7% month-to-month decline in total fuel demand in June. This comprised a quantifiable decline in jet fuel and petrol consumption, mainly due to decreased air and road traffic due to seasonal weather disruptions. Consequently, the jet kerosene demand continued to be subdued irrespective of continuous year-on-year revival in the aviation business.

On the supply side, local refiners remained steady at operations levels, holding substantial inventories of jet kerosene through the month. Leading players such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOCL) kept ATF supplied continuously, augmented by strong infrastructure, including sophisticated hydrant fueling systems in prominent airports and strategic storage sites. In addition, consistent import volumes—particularly U.S., Brazilian, and Russian crude oil quantities—served to augment the well-stocked supply environment, positioning inventories comfortably in front of demand.

The India Refining Summit in June also underscored the changing strategy of the industry, centering around more valuable petrochemicals and cleaner technologies to drive long-term efficiency and sustainability. Although these changes may not have yet directly affected pricing, they announce structural shifts that can impact the Jet kerosene market in the years ahead.

Even with the declining trend throughout June, jet kerosene prices saw a sudden 7.5% swing in early July. Industry analysts attribute this dramatic turn, they say, to diminishing inventory positions, speculative positions, or pre-policy adjustment changes in the aviation fuel mix.

India will put a mandate on domestic carriers to mix at least 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in their ATF consumption from sometime later in 2025. Subject to the availability of biofuels, the mandate could be increased to 4–5%, which could fundamentally alter the demand profile for conventional jet kerosene in the near term.

At the same time, international forces are also impacting the wider jet kerosene market. International demand has been weakening, and the International Energy Agency reduced its projection of 2025 jet fuel consumption in light of diminished cross-border travel by Chinese tourists and regulatory uncertainty in the United States.

As per ChemAnalyst, the price of Jet Kerosene is expected to remain volatile, in the forthcoming days. Ongoing global trade uncertainties may disrupt the oil supply in the region leading to increased production cost of Jet Kerosene in the market.

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