For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Jet Kerosene spot prices in North America remained in a muted pricing environment during Q2 2025, reflecting limited market momentum compared to the same period in 2024.
• Despite modest strength in crude oil prices, jet fuel prices remained largely subdued, pressured by ample refinery output, elevated inventory levels, and measured airline procurement.
• In June 2025, the spot price index rose 8.6% month-over-month, marking the first monthly increase since January, though still 12.5% lower year-over-year. This shift was driven by seasonal demand and speculative buying, even as market fundamentals remained soft.
• Airline fuel consumption throughout Q2 stayed below 2024 benchmarks. In April, usage was down 18% year-over-year, and fuel costs per gallon declined by 3.8% compared to March, despite rising passenger traffic.
• Supply-side conditions remained supportive. Gulf Coast refiners reported stable operations with no major disruptions, while steady import flows—notably from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Russia—helped offset any supply-side risk.
• Industry focus continued to shift toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Although SAF availability remains limited, the influence of upcoming policy mandates and ESG compliance goals is gradually reshaping procurement strategies and applying structural pressure on conventional jet fuel demand.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in USA?
• In July 2025, the U.S. Jet Kerosene Spot Price Index recorded a modest increase month-over-month, although it remained lower year-over-year, reflecting the broader downward trend in aviation fuel prices.
• The monthly uptick aligned with seasonal growth in travel activity, particularly during the peak summer period, which supported a slight rise in fuel consumption.
• Refinery operations across key production hubs remained stable, with no major outages reported. This ensured a steady output of jet fuel and helped contain cost-side pressures.
• Import volumes—notably from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery—continued to supplement U.S. supply, enhancing market balance during the high-demand season and alleviating price volatility.
APAC
• The Jet Kerosene Spot Price in India declined modestly in Q2 2025, continuing a downward trend that began in May, largely driven by reduced demand due to the early arrival of the monsoon season.
• Despite an uptick in upstream Crude Oil prices, the Jet Kerosene Price Index trended lower, indicating limited cost pass-through due to abundant domestic inventories and stable refining activity.
• Supply conditions remained favorable with steady production, robust logistical infrastructure, and uninterrupted crude inflows from the U.S., Brazil, and Russia, ensuring balanced availability.
• Downstream consumption was softened by decreased air travel and mobility, although overall fuel demand, including LPG and petrol, showed resilience.
• Policy developments around Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption—targeting a 1% blend in 2025—signal an evolving demand landscape for conventional jet fuel.
Why does the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in APAC?
• During July 2025, the prices of Jet kerosene increased as major manufacturers increased their prices.
• The price reversal in July was largely triggered by increases in international crude oil benchmarks, particularly geopolitical tensions following Israeli–Iran escalation
• India relies heavily on import parity pricing; therefore, international crude price surges and a weaker Indian rupee (≈ 2.5% weaker vs. July 2024) amplified domestic fuel costs
Europe
• During Q2 2025, the Jet Kerosene Spot Price in Europe remained volatile, influenced by regulatory changes, increased imports, and geopolitical uncertainties. While demand improved gradually, evolving fuel sourcing requirements reshaped overall market behavior.
• A key structural shift was the rollout of the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which implemented a 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending mandate beginning in 2025. This regulation signals the EU's long-term strategy to reach 70% SAF usage by 2050.
• In June 2025, the aviation sector experienced operational challenges in adopting SAF. Though sourcing and blending logistics exerted some upward price pressure, increased jet fuel exports from Northeast Asia, encouraged by lower freight costs and Middle Eastern supply concerns, helped stabilize conventional jet fuel prices.
• In May 2025, the focus remained on scaling up SAF supply. However, limited availability of advanced SAF types—particularly synthetic e-fuels—highlighted supply-demand mismatches, posing risks to blending economics and future price formation.
• In April 2025, Europe's jet fuel market faced the initial effects of SAF integration while also dealing with global supply chain disruptions. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and logistical delays contributed to buyer caution and hindered seamless fuel procurement.
• Despite regulatory momentum, market participants encountered challenges due to supply constraints, limited SAF infrastructure, and high production costs. These factors led to procurement inefficiencies and moderate pricing volatility throughout the quarter.
Why does the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in Europe?
• Jet fuel spot prices in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean surged in July 2025, reversing previous trends of price stability.
• The price spike was largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran–Israel conflict, which raised concerns over supply chain reliability.
• These concerns contributed to a ~45% increase in regional jet fuel premiums, according to industry sources.
• Diesel premiums surpassed jet fuel premiums for the first time since early 2023, altering middle distillate market dynamics.
• The shift was fueled by tight gas oil supply, which reduced arbitrage flows and led traders to prioritize diesel in their pricing strategies.
• Overall, these developments introduced increased volatility and reshaped pricing behavior across refined fuel markets in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American Jet Kerosene market witnessed notable volatility during Q1 2025, with the United States being the most significantly impacted region. According to data released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), U.S. scheduled service airlines consumed 1.453 billion gallons of fuel in January 2025, reflecting an 8.9% decrease compared to December 2024 (1.594 billion gallons) and a 0.6% decline from January 2020, pre-pandemic levels.
In February 2025, fuel consumption further declined to 1.356 billion gallons, down 6.7% from January 2025 but 2.0% higher than in February 2020. The average cost per gallon increased marginally by 3 cents (1.1%) between January and February 2025. Despite early quarter price firmness, the market experienced downward pressure in March 2025. This was primarily attributed to a sharp rise in imports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, which added approximately 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel to U.S. inventories—marking the highest import level since February 2023.
This influx, coupled with already robust domestic inventories and moderating demand growth, contributed to the overall decline in Jet Kerosene prices towards the end of the quarter.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2025, Jet Kerosene prices in India experienced a fluctuating trajectory shaped by evolving demand and stable supply dynamics. In January, prices declined amid subdued aviation demand, reflected in a drop in new vehicle registrations and broader economic uncertainty. However, demand partially recovered later in the month due to increased air travel during the Kumbh Mela. February witnessed a brief price surge, supported by heightened aviation activity during the festive and holiday season. Despite firm demand, prices remained relatively controlled due to sufficient domestic inventories and stable crude oil availability. Notably, the launch of the India SAF Alliance during India Climate Week in February highlighted a national push toward sustainable aviation fuels, potentially signaling a long-term decline in conventional jet fuel consumption. In March, Jet Kerosene prices registered a modest decline, largely due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices, which helped lower production costs. Strong manufacturing activity and efficient energy management also ensured ample supply, limiting upward price pressure. Overall, Q1 ended with a mild downward price trend, underpinned by steady supply conditions and emerging market transitions.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, the European Jet Kerosene market remained under sustained pressure, with prices facing downward momentum due to a confluence of regulatory, supply, and trade-related factors. A key development impacting the market was the implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates across the European Union and the United Kingdom, effective from January 1, 2025. These mandates require a minimum blending of 2% SAF with conventional jet fuel, as part of broader efforts to decarbonize the aviation sector. While the immediate impact on fossil jet fuel demand was modest, the policy signaled a structural shift in fuel consumption patterns. A more pronounced effect is anticipated later in the year, as suppliers ramp up compliance with blending requirements. Simultaneously, international trade dynamics also influenced market fundamentals. The premium of Northwest European jet fuel over Singaporean grades narrowed to its lowest point in three years, prompting some cargoes to be redirected toward Asia. This eastward redirection of supply contributed to easing inventory pressures within the European market, further reinforcing the bearish pricing environment throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Jet Kerosene market experienced significant price fluctuations. During the initial two months of the quarter, prices surged due to heightened demand from the aviation sector. Increased travel and airline activity placed pressure on refiners, unable to fully meet the rising demand.
Geopolitical tensions also contributed to higher crude oil prices, which further impacted Jet Kerosene pricing. Moreover, insights from market participants indicated that airfares had not fully kept pace with inflation, particularly in comparison to the rising costs of jet fuel.
By December 2024, however, Jet Kerosene prices saw a slight decline. This was attributed to moderate fluctuations in crude oil prices and sufficient supply, with traders having strategically stockpiled inventories. Anticipating a dip in aviation demand post-holiday season, inventories helped stabilize the market. The decline in prices was expected to continue as reduced consumption during the festive period led to lower demand for Jet Kerosene, signaling further price adjustments in the coming months.
Asia-Pacific
In Q4 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market exhibited upward trends, driven by robust demand and shifting supply dynamics. In India, prices rose by 1.4% in December, despite fluctuating crude oil prices, due to strong aviation fuel demand. This was reflected in a 6.8% year-on-year increase in Air Traffic Fuel (ATF) sales, supported by a 5.2% month-on-month rise compared to November. The demand surge, coupled with stable feedstock costs, tightened the supply-demand balance in the Indian market, signaling continued pressure on prices. During November, Jet Kerosene prices also increased, fueled by higher export demand from key Asian markets such as Singapore and Malaysia, where imports of Indian jet fuel reached multi-year highs. This demand spike, combined with strategic export diversions and rising domestic consumption, put upward pressure on prices. India’s consumption reached historic levels, driven by peak air travel during the holiday season. Despite lower crude oil prices, India’s position as a critical supplier in Asia, bolstered by strategic adjustments and increasing exports, helped stabilize the regional market. These trends, alongside strong consumption patterns and global supply chain shifts, suggest that Jet Kerosene prices in Asia are likely to remain elevated in the short term.
Europe
The European Jet Kerosene market faced challenging conditions in the final quarter of 2024, driven by several key factors. A notable increase in supply from Middle Eastern and Indian refineries contributed to the shift in market dynamics. According to Eurostat data, EU jet fuel demand showed a slight year-on-year rise of 0.7% from January to July 2024, indicating a steady yet subdued demand. As a result, the price premium for northwest European jet fuel over Singaporean jet fuel reached its narrowest point in three years, prompting a shift in trade flows. In recent months, European jet fuel has been increasingly shipped to Asia, with Singaporean prices surpassing European levels by late November. Despite these developments, market participants remain optimistic about the European supply outlook. They do not anticipate any significant tightness in the supply of jet fuel in the region, as increased refinery capacity and stable demand are expected to balance out market conditions moving forward. While pricing trends have become more aligned with Asian markets, Europe’s jet fuel market remains stable, with no major concerns of shortages expected in the near term.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
North American Jet Kerosene prices exhibited a mixed trend throughout Q3 2024. Prices surged in the first and final months of the quarter, driven by robust demand and fluctuating crude oil prices, while experiencing a dip in July. In the quarter's initial month, increased travel activity prompted U.S. airlines to expand capacity, offering approximately 6% more seats compared to July 2023. This expansion placed upward pressure on Jet Kerosene demand, reflecting a broader recovery in the aviation sector with significant growth in both leisure and business travel.
Similarly, prices surged again in September 2024, as jet fuel demand on the U.S. West Coast reached its highest level in four years during the first half of the year. However, the recovery in West Coast air travel has been slower, and improved aircraft efficiency has tempered fuel consumption.
Conversely, prices dipped in July, as reported by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). U.S. airlines consumed 1.686 billion gallons of fuel in August 2024, a 2.9% decrease from July’s 1.736 billion gallons.
APAC
In Q3 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market showed mixed trends, surging in the first two months but declining in September, particularly in India. Prices initially rose due to several factors, including increased value-added tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel and higher airport fees, creating an inflationary environment that impacted airline operations. Strong demand, coupled with rising crude oil prices, further pressured airlines financially. Notably, India's diesel and jet kerosene exports to Singapore and Australia hit their highest levels in two and a half years, driven by weak demand from Europe, prompting Indian suppliers to shift focus to domestic markets. However, in September, Jet Kerosene prices dropped in line with falling crude oil prices, which exerted downward pressure on production costs. This decline was also influenced by fluctuating demand due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which curtailed passenger activity and reduced flight operations. As weather improved later in the month, demand for Jet Kerosene gradually revived, highlighting the aviation sector's sensitivity to external factors. Overall, the pricing dynamics reflected a complex interplay of regulatory changes, supply shifts, and demand fluctuations. The latest quarter ending price of Jet Kerosene Ex-Mumbai was USD 1018/MT.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Jet Kerosene market exhibited modest performance, reflecting a nuanced interplay of supply and demand dynamics. In August, jet fuel inflows from the East of Suez into Europe experienced a notable increase. This uptick in supply is significant in light of the previously constrained market conditions. Additionally, the arbitrage opportunity from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe, which had been effectively closed since April due to rising domestic demand in the U.S., reopened during this quarter. Europe was poised to receive approximately 44,000 metric tons of jet fuel in August, further contributing to the supply landscape. While aviation demand remains relatively strong, it has not reached peak levels. Airlines have faced ongoing aircraft delivery issues, leading to capacity constraints that have ultimately limited the number of available seats for passengers. As a result, this operational challenge has led to a decline in passenger traffic, contributing to a more tempered market environment for Jet Kerosene in Europe during the quarter. Overall, the market's performance indicates a cautious optimism tempered by logistical challenges and fluctuating supply conditions.
FAQs
1 What factor are currently influencing Jet Kerosene prices globally?
Jet Kerosene prices are being shaped by a combination of seasonal demand trends, refining output, and regulatory developments such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates. In North America, stable refinery operations and steady imports are keeping prices moderate. Europe’s market is impacted by SAF blending requirements and geopolitical risks, while in Asia, especially India, early monsoon rains and ample supply have driven prices downward.
2. Who are the top Jet Kerosene producers globally?
Major producers include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Sinopec, Shell, and BP. In India, IOCL is a dominant domestic refiner and supplier, while in Europe and the U.S., multinational oil companies lead production and distribution.
3. What is the Jet Kerosene Price Forecast for Q3 2025?
The forecast suggests moderate upward pressure in North America driven by seasonal travel demand, while Europe may see sustained volatility due to SAF blending mandates and geopolitical instability. Asia-Pacific may experience mixed pricing, depending on monsoon effects and SAF policy rollout in countries like India.
4. How is the Jet Kerosene Production Cost Trend impacting global prices?
Production costs remain relatively stable due to steady refinery operations and stable crude oil feedstock supply. However, logistical challenges, import dependencies (e.g., from Nigeria and Russia), and SAF-related infrastructure costs are emerging as factors influencing future pricing dynamics.
