For the Quarter Ending June 2021
Rapid recovery from pandemic after successful vaccination drive increased Jet Kerosene consumption across North America during this quarter. Post this rise, an effective rebound in prices of Jet Kerosene was also observed in USA, where prices consistently traced upward trajectory, as the US government steadily lifted international travel ban. In addition, rising crude values also exacerbated this price hike, where USA faced difficulties due to sudden hike in demand amid rising upstream cost. Primarily, increase in consumption from domestic aviation sector increased the prices of Jet Kerosene from USD 545/MT to USD 607/MT during April-June timeframe.
Asian Jet Kerosene consumption varied country over country during this quarter. China witnessed a steep rise in domestic Jet Kerosene consumption during Q2 2021, backed by recovery in economic activities and relaxation of national and international travel ban. Meanwhile in India, a steep decline in consumption of Jet Fuel was observed during this timeframe, due to sudden implementation of COVID restrictions amid second wave of pandemic in the country. However, prices kept on rising, under international pressure. Therefore, the prices of Jet Kerosene rose from USD 967.6/MT to USD 1072.2/MT during this quarter in India.
Europe also witnessed a steep rebound in prices of Jet Kerosene during this quarter, backed by recovery in consumption by regional aviation sector. European governments relaxed travel bans from the people inoculated with COVID vaccine. These decisions were taken to kick start the domestic aviation sector, which faced devastation since last year due to pandemic. In addition, rising crude oil values also supported the overall price trajectory in this timeframe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
Jet Kerosene demand were observed improving consistently compared to the prior quarter in North America, as international flights stated taking off with the economic rebound. Although the demand for Jet Kerosene from the aviation sector was observed to be low initially during January, but rapid vaccination roll out brought overall improvement in the demand. Varying with consistent demand from the aviation sector, the price of Jet Kerosene rose from USD 972.5/MT in January to USD 1197/MT in March, although lower output from the US gulf coast amidst winter disruption also contributed to this rise.
Jet Kerosene demand from Asian countries varied with the recovery of the aviation sector amid COVID 19 crisis. Aviation sector of China was expected to rise but was observed to be way below the pre-pandemic levels, prompting Jet Kerosene manufacturers to look towards export markets as the domestic demand remained unreasonably low. On the other side, demand for Jet Kerosene from the Indian aviation sector showed a healthy improvement which supported the prices of Jet Kerosene across the country. The price of Jet Kerosene in India rose by 9.9% within the quarter, backed by recovery in the crude values.
Another wave of COVID 19, fresh lockdown restrictions and slower pace of vaccination halted the improvement of the European aviation sector during Q1 2021. It was observed that the operations turned lower than the prior quarter due to fresh restrictions over several economies. Hence the demand for Jet Kerosene from the aviation sector remained low initially, pushing Jet Kerosene values to undue stability. Although demand is expected to show improvement as UK has announced to resume international travel from early May.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
The Asian Jet Kerosene market values edged higher in Q3 of 2020 on pickup in demand for heating oil Kerosene ahead of the winter season. But with travelling season in major global economies coming to an end, the market ended up with lull demand by the end of September. While stock piling due to seasonal shortage temporarily eased off the downward pressure on weak margins of Jet Kerosene, a meaningful rebound is anticipated to take at least a year due to uncertainties over travel activities. To secure profit amidst tepid demand, manufacturers are anticipated to blend excess jet cargoes into alternate fuel pools till 2021.
Market fundamentals of Jet Kerosene in North America observed unprecedented recovery in comparison to other regions because of the higher domestic travel activities. With the travelling season marking an end by September, the demand is likely to stagnate for several months on reduced commercial travelling. Refiners are expecting further boost in recovery by the last quarter with high hopes of increment in the international travel activities as coronavirus cases have plateaued in many economies after surpassing the peak.
The European Jet Kerosene market witnessed dented demand in Q3 as resurgence in coronavirus cases aggravated the global travel restrictions. Surplus cargoes amidst lull demand has continued to exacerbate the supply side crisis. With consumption pattern primarily related to growth in travelling pattern, the demand is likely to stay muted with extended restrictions in international travel activities on fears of second wave of coronavirus across the globe.