Lacklustre Demand Leads Global Ammonia Prices to Decline in March 2024

Throughout March 2024, the global Ammonia market witnessed a significant downturn. This decline can be primarily ascribed to the decreasing price of a vital raw material, natural gas. The decline in natural gas prices has resulted in reduced production costs for Ammonia, thereby exerting downward pressure on its prices. Additionally, reduced demand from major downstream fertilizer markets due to declining planting activities further contributed to the decrease in prices.

At the same time, the European Ammonia market has declined by a significant margin of 3.8%, reflecting the pattern observed earlier in the month.  A key factor contributing to this trend has been the decrease in the price of natural gas, a critical component in Ammonia production. This decline in natural gas costs has resulted in reduced production expenses in the region, leading to a decrease in Ammonia prices. In addition, adverse weather conditions, particularly in the northern regions, have aggravated the situation. Heavy rainfall and unfavourable weather have significantly hindered agricultural activities, impacting the demand for fertilizers, including Ammonia. Consequently, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the interest in purchasing fertilizers. Furthermore, farmers have been cautious, delaying their procurement decisions until the last minute, potentially distorting the actual demand level. Despite these challenges, it is important to note that manufacturing facilities in the region have continued to operate at a satisfactory rate, and there have been no major disruptions in the supply chain during this period.

Similarly in the Middle eastern market, Ammonia market has experienced a notable decline of 1.6% in prices. The market has been impacted by lower netbacks on contractual shipments to North African and Asian markets over the past few weeks. This decrease in netbacks has further contributed to the downward pressure on Ammonia prices in the region. Furthermore, during this week, the smooth flow of cargoes to the international market was observed without any major hindrance in the supply chain. This uninterrupted flow of goods has helped to maintain a steady market dynamic. It is noteworthy that Ma'aden, a prominent producer of Ammonia in Saudi Arabia, encountered a minor issue at one of its three plants during this period. However, this issue was swiftly resolved without any disruption to the loading schedule, ensuring continuity in production and supply. 

According to ChemAnalyst, the Ammonia market is predicted to undergo a downward trend in the upcoming months due to decreasing feedstock prices and diminished seasonal demand.