In early July 2025, lithium carbonate prices stayed impressively stable, as steady global supply met cautious but consistent demand. Even amid rising trade tensions and China’s halt on rare-earth exports, the market held its ground. Strong output from Latin America and Australia supported balance, while EV demand showed mixed signals—softening in China but improving in the U.S. Despite policy uncertainty, buyers and sellers remained steady, keeping the market in a calm, watchful holding pattern.
Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices remained remarkably stable during the first ten days of July 2025, as a rare moment of balance between resilient supply and measured demand kept the market calm despite a wave of geopolitical and trade policy disruptions. Even as tensions escalated over tariffs and China froze rare-earth metal exports, neither buyers nor sellers of lithium carbonate found reason to aggressively shift their positions, resulting in a steady and subdued trading environment.
On the supply side, Latin America continued to account for a significant portion of global lithium carbonate output. Chile maintains robust shipments, with government forecasts pointing to incremental gains of lithium carbonate through the year. Argentina, too, is stepping up—Eramet’s Centenario project remains on track for full ramp-up, and several direct lithium extraction (DLE) pilot facilities are inching closer to stable output. Meanwhile, Australia’s hard rock miners are operating at or near full capacity. Pilbara Minerals is running at the upper end of its guidance after recent upgrades, and Greenbushes’ new concentrator is nearing completion, promising further spodumene flow into Asia by late Q3.
Demand signals for lithium carbonate were steady but a bit cautious. China, the world’s largest EV market, set a record in June with over a million new energy vehicle (NEV) sales. However, July opened more softly as automakers paused incentives ahead of seasonal campaigns. In contrast, the U.S. market saw improving year-to-date EV sales despite some recent slowdown. General Motors doubled its electric vehicle deliveries in Q2, and other major automakers also reported gains. Still, lingering concerns about charging infrastructure and changing subsidy rules kept some buyers on the sidelines. Europe remained quiet, with most cathode producers continuing to buy only what they need, avoiding speculative stocking.
Trade and industrial policy developments added further complexity to the lithium carbonate market. The U.S. kept its tariffs on Chinese battery components intact, reinforcing a protectionist stance with new levies on copper and automotive inputs. China, for its part, imposed a sweeping halt on rare-earth metal and magnet exports, further entrenching a tense global supply chain dynamic. These moves stoked uncertainty but failed to jolt lithium carbonate prices, as most participants viewed them as long-term structural risks rather than immediate supply threats.
Looking ahead, according to the ChemAnalyst database, the lithium carbonate market is expected to hold its current course through the coming weeks. July and August typically bring strong South American output, and with NEV production in China likely to slow slightly due to seasonal factors, any tightness appears unlikely. However, upcoming policy deadlines loom large, particularly the end of U.S. federal EV tax credits in September, which may cause a temporary demand spike for commodities including Lithium Carbonate followed by a potential lull. Meanwhile, China's rare-earth export ban could eventually push up magnet prices and alter battery chemistry preferences. For now, though, the lithium carbonate market appears locked in a holding pattern—stable, but alert.
