Global Naphtha Split: China Falls 1.38%, Brazil Stocks Tighten, US Rises in Late September 2025

The global naphtha market closed the month of September 2025 on a mixed note, driven by evolving trade flows, supply/demand for feedstocks, and downstream demand. In China, bearish sentiment prevailed, highlighted by sanctions-induced crude shorts that elevated domestic inventories, along with underlying weak construction activity that muted naphtha pull even as crackers ran stronger and pre-holiday restocking took place. Brazil had firm conditions based on tight supply and declining stocks, all while downstream demand was lackluster. US Gulf naphtha trends remained constructive on the back of stable refinery runs, firm petrochemical margins, and the rising cost of crude. Middle Eastern naphtha values were steady as lower crude exports were offset by adequate inventories and additional OPEC+ supply. The naphtha market showed an obvious East-West dichotomy with oversupply and weak demand in Asia, tight conditions supporting Brazil's firm market, and balanced feedstocks affecting the US and Middle East. The divergence in supply/demand fundamentals forms a volatile backdrop to start trading in October for global naphtha trade.