U.S. natural gas prices firmed mid-November 2025, as forecasts for colder weather revived heating demand expectations. After several days of warmer revisions, updated European models indicated stronger consumption in late November and early December, which sparked renewed buying interest. Traders were expecting the first withdrawal of the season following an early cold snap, with inventories above average, which helped boost the bullish case. Production in the Lower-48 remained near record highs, but strong LNG feedgas demand was tightening balances further, with export flows still holding strong. Analysts said the near-term pricing was heavily influenced by the updated weather forecasts, but the longer-term fundamental outlook remained constructive. Increased demand from household and industrial users buoyed expectations, along with expanding LNG capacity. The outlook set U.S. natural gas prices to rise through the early winter period.
US natural gas futures jumped in mid-November 2025 as colder temperatures and high export demand drove prices up. The updated European weather forecasts also added to the heating requirements of the latter part of November and the first part of December, which had been trending warmer over the past few days. The natural gas market had already turned supportive before the first withdrawal of the year as an early cold outbreak boosted views of lessened balances going into the coming winter. Although stock levels had been above average, the prospect of increased usage from the residential and industrial sectors boosted natural gas futures.
Production levels in the Lower-48 continue to be close to record levels due to efficiency enhancements and strong production from shale plays. The increasing requirement for the feedgas used in the production of liquefied natural gas also exerted pressure in this regard, though the volumes of natural gas used to produce liquefied natural gas were high in the month of November. This trend also marked the evolving significance of natural gas from the United States as a source of global requirements in the wake of volatility in the global energy market. It was suggested that though the level of natural gas production from the United States was sufficient, the increasing natural gas exports along with the requirements of the fall season had introduced a positive environment in the natural gas market as opposed to the early fall period.
However, investment banks and market observers also noted that the short-term direction of natural gas prices remains prone to the effects of weather factors and that every change in the forecasts can shift market sentiment. Market observers also noted that comfortable levels of natural gas inventory would require higher prices to encourage growth in the supply amounts needed to accommodate export commitments. The company also noted that the increasing demand driven by power-guzzling data centers and the increasing LNG capacity would also continue to change the market landscape, requiring growth in supplies to match consumption.
The US Energy Information Administration also predicted that the production side and the demand side will reach a record high in 2025 and 2026, respectively, which verifies the long-term bullish trend. Companies such as EQT Corporation and Expand Energy reported strong quarterly production levels due to efficiency enhancements and a focus on costs, which will continue the trend of growth in the coming years.
Market players were also aware of the contribution of the associated natural gas from oil wells to the general level of supplies, although the relationship between the increasing production level and the increasing consumption level was rather volatile. The natural gas prices up until mid-November had been affected by a rather complex situation involving the high level of domestic production, the strength of the inventory levels, and the strong levels of exports, although the expected cold temperatures helped to create the needed momentum to push the U.S. natural gas market clearly in the upward direction as the winter approached.
