Starting 2026, the current state of the global ocean freight market is seen to have turned positive with a short-term increase in spot rates, which is mostly attributed to pre-Lunar New year demand and the following of GRIs by the shipping lines. Container spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast jumped about 22 % to roughly $3,000 per FEU, while Asia–US East Coast rates climbed around 12 % to nearly $3,770 per FEU. On the Asia–Northern Europe and Asia–Mediterranean corridors, rates rose about 9 % to $3,000 per FEU and 21 % to $4,344 per FEU, respectively. These movements represent a temporary seasonal rebound, reflecting strong pre- holiday cargo flows rather than sustained structural recovery.
The early-year rate increases have been supported by pre- LNY booking surges. The “pre- holiday red zone- typically 3-4 weeks before factories in Asia close for the LNY holiday in mid- February- temporarily tightens effective shipping capacity, allowing carriers to maintain higher spot rates. Mediterranean routes, in particular have seen spot rates approach on surpass 2025 peaks, driven by effective vessel positioning and strong demand.
Despite this, the overall basic market structure has a mixed outlook, with spot rates moving higher; overall, Asia-Europe rates remain down by about 40% compared to the same period last year. On the trans- Pacific route, prior GRI increased were largely undone in late 2025 due to excess capacity, showing that GRIs are not consistently effective across all lanes. This highlights the distinction between short- term, strategic rate spikes and longer-term structural weakness.
Taking in the general factors affecting global logistics, there is also a major geopolitical event that involves Venezuela. Towards the latter parts of December in 2025, due to heightened U.S. military and economic interventions, U.S. military personnel took control of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January, 2026. This act is under heavy international scrutiny for possible international legal infractions. Although Venezuela's oil infrastructure has apparently been spared any direct damage, the tightening of U.S. embargo measures has effectively stopped crude exports for a number of days, especially to Asia—the principal destination route for Venezuela's oil exports. In turn, this has resulted in additional pressure on oil inventories for PDVSA, as well as the possibility of additional cuts to oil output if export limitations remain. The effects to international routes have thus far been regional instead of systematic, with adequate oil available to mitigate any shortages. But political risk, additional naval presence, additional inspections, as well as high insurance rates, are increasing complexities for all sea routes passing through the Caribbean/Atlantic.
For the short-term outlook, ocean rates are forecast to remain high throughout the middle to end of January because of the continuing positive booking volumes for LNY and the observance of GRIs by carriers. After the holiday season, rates may decrease because of a reduction in cargo volumes and the resurgence of capacity issues. Despite the U.S. and Venezuela situation thus far not causing any shock waves in the freight markets, geopolitical tensions and associated risks to regional shipping may materialize in changes to route structures or higher risk differentials for routes associated with the Caribbean routes. Tactical capacity deployment by carriers may follow in 2026.
