Coconut Oil prices in the Philippines saw a slight increase in the first half of July 2025, following a sharp decline in June. The earlier drop was driven by long-term supply optimism linked to the government’s aggressive replanting program. However, tight domestic inventories and firm international demand have since supported a modest price rebound. Experts anticipate further price increases in the second half of July amid strong offshore buying and constrained supply.
Recent analysis indicates that the Coconut Oil prices in the Philippines market saw a temporary increase during the first half of July 2025 reversing some of the price movements recorded in the previous month. The small price rebound of Coconut Oil is contributed to the rebuilding domestic stockpiles and the strong continued demand, notably in major international markets. Though the prices had fallen in the past based on a long-term positive results of supply expectations, then the situation in current market has changed in tune with the stronger quotations by exporters.
The price trend in the Philippines in June showed a downward trend in Coconut Oil prices due to a combination of the new government policies and the expectations of high supply in the market. Under the administration of the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA), the Philippine government stepped up its coconut replanting efforts nationwide. The PCA revise their initial target by doubling from 25 million trees to planting 50 million coconut trees by 2026, and eventual plans of 100 million by 2028. This massive replenishment program set to restore the Philippines to the position of a leading coconut producer in the world sent a strong market message about future growth in the supply.
Such events created a bearish momentum on Coconut Oil prices in the short run leading to correction of the prices with traders pricing in anticipation of abundance of supply in future. Moreover, department of energy delayed a proposed rise in required coconut-oil biodiesel mix by advancing a temporary suspension given that the global prices were already high. This delay on the policy further slowed the growth in domestic consumption in the short term and this intensified the fall in Coconut Oil prices in June.
But that sentiment had started to change by early July. The expected future supply was still several years in the future, and short-term market constraints began to have a more serious market impact. Exporters and processors of coconut oil said they faced low stocks and the problem was worsened by the frequent weather disturbance that interfered with collection and drying of nuts in the main producing areas. This change in the supply environment encouraged suppliers to take a more aggressive approach toward the pricing of Coconut Oil.
Demand-wise, the Philippine Coconut Oil market was stable up to June 2025, due to the consistent importation internationally. Moderated prices tempted foreigners to order shipments as they were taking anticipation that prices would increase in future. The PCA was forecasting that the earnings related to the exportation of coconut oil in 2025 would exceed the record established during the preceding year (USD 2.22 billion). Moreover, the fall of the U.S. Dollar against the Philippine Peso affected pricing strategies, as international buyers rushed to buy the products before more such currency-related changes occurred.
Market experts predict that Coconut Oil prices will continue increasing during the second half of July 2025 in the Philippines. Tightening domestic supply and robust offshore demand of Coconut Oil are likely to keep exporters pegged on firm quotations. As consumers expect future increases in cost, the intensity of procurement may increase as a hedge against such price make-ups. In addition, the competitive prices of substitute oils like palm and soybean have not affected the coconut oil fundamentals since their prices are also high. The combination of these factors favors the bullish price forecast of Coconut Oil throughout the rest of the month.
