Rapeseed oil Prices Decline in the USA in Sept 2025, Rebound Anticipated Ahead

Key Highlights

1. Global Oversupply Pressure – Higher rapeseed oil output in the European Union and Canada contributed volumes to surplus global trade streams. This pressured prices in destination markets like the United States.
2. Weak Food and Industrial Demand – With food processors in the U.S. increasingly depending on competitively valued soybean oil, imports saw less buying push. Industrial demand from the biofuel industries was firm but insufficient to offset overall weakness.
3. Weakening Feedstock Prices – Rapeseed seed prices in key production regions lowered due to favorable growing conditions. Weakening feedstock prices directly supported lower export offers, thereby reducing U.S. rapeseed oil import prices.
4. Macroeconomic Uncertainty – The overall economy showed cautious consumer spending during September, as inflation worries still influenced individual budgets. This lowered consumption patterns in fats and edible oils including rapeseed oil.

Industry statistics indicated that rapeseed oil import prices into the U.S. declined consistently, with purchasers showing restraint given already sufficient domestic inventories and slow procurement from the industrial and food sectors. Importers avoided bulk purchases, anticipating further adjustments given the pressure exerted by substitute vegetable oils like soybean and sunflower oil. Furthermore, international supply chains were also well-stocked with large quantities of rapeseed oil shipments from Europe and Canada, keeping international offers mild. This excess scenario, combined with weak downstream consumption, further added bearish undertones to the U.S. rapeseed oil market.

Market Sentiment and Near-Term Outlook:

While September marked a significant decline, the U.S. rapeseed oil market is likely to witness a small pick-up in the next few months. Several supply-side and demand-side factors are expected to provide support to rapeseed oil prices over time.

Predicted Drivers of a Modest Increase:

• Seasonal Demand Recovery: As the U.S. moves into the fourth quarter of 2025, seasonal food demand will resume its climb, particularly in advance of holiday celebrations. This should lift procurement activity by food processors, supporting rapeseed oil demand.
• Tightening Supply Dynamics: While September was marked by oversupply, the subsequent months may see tightening availability as European producers hold inventories more carefully and Canadian deliveries dwindle.
• Competing Oils Price Correction: The downtrend in sunflower and soybean oil prices is starting to stabilize. As competing oils recover marginally, rapeseed oil is likely to follow the trend upward to maintain parity in the edible oils complex.
• Biofuels' Sustainability Demand: As U.S. policy continues to focus on cleaner fuels, demand for rapeseed oil as a biofuel feedstock may increase modestly.

Industry Voices:

Market players noted subdued optimism in the industry. One U.S.-based edible oil trader said, "September was unmistakably characterized by oversupply and lackluster demand, but as we move into Q4, chances of better seasonal buying and reduced global supply are increasing. Prices might not jump rapidly, but a rebound in rapeseed oil is in the offing." Food companies also acknowledged that cost-effectiveness would remain the main concern, but some diversification away from soybean oil is expected, which would provide incremental backing for rapeseed oil in the months ahead.