The period between December 17 and December 24 of 2025 represented a critical transition phase for the global shipping community. In anticipation of the approaching Lunar New Year of 2026, earlier than usual on February 17, sea carriers have managed to capitalize on peak demand ahead of the festival to implement significant General Rate Increases. However, the most striking development this week was the visible, albeit cautious, movement of major vessels back through the Suez Canal.
Spot rates on the Asia-Europe trade lane climbed significantly this week. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 8% to $2,584/FEU, while the Shanghai–Genoa route saw a 10% jump to $3,427/FEU. Carriers and forwarders report that some shippers have started ordering earlier than normal ahead of Lunar New Year, contributing to this rate increase. Historical trends from Europe in December 2023 and 2024, when prices jump ahead of the holiday, may also be influencing current dynamics.
The Transpacific market saw the sharpest gains of the week, driven by a scramble to beat potential tariff adjustments in the New Year. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles skyrocketed 18% to $2,481/FEU, while Shanghai to New York rose 19% to $3,302/FEU. Carriers have managed this "pop" through tactical capacity management, including approximately 10 blank sailings announced for the final week of December. Despite the rate spike, analysts note that vessel utilization remains a concern, as the global fleet continues to expand at a rate that threatens to outpace current demand levels.
Schedule reliability is again under pressure. Terminal congestions in Northern Europe have led to bunching of vessels, resulting in delays of 3-5 days on the major hubs. At the same time, monsoon conditions in the Southeast Asia region, specifically in Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Malaysia, have affected terminal operations, resulting in missed berthing and resulting in imbalance at the pristine terminals.
Looking ahead the last week of December 2025 and the early part of January 2026 will also be expected to be quite volatile. Expect the following from carriers: The final step of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) increases to 100% on January 1, 2026, to result in an immediate jump in environmental charges of potentially up to 35-50% higher costs due to carbon. A record-breaking orderbook of 11.6 million TEU will begin rolling in late Q1 of 2026. A full reopening of the Suez Canal means that the shock waves from the sudden boost of capacity that has been "soaked up" by the longer Capes may cause the spot market to implode in March. A final peak in mid-January is expected as Chinese factories work to move inventory in time for the February 17 holiday.
