Russia has delayed its 100-million-ton LNG target by several years as sanctions, project delays, and rising global competition intensify.
Russia has officially postponed its ambition to achieve an annual liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity of 100 million tonnes, acknowledging that the target will now be delayed by several years. The announcement was made by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak during an interview with state broadcaster Rossiya-24, where he cited the continued impact of Western sanctions on the country’s energy sector as the primary reason for the setback.
The delay represents a significant shift from Russia’s earlier strategic goals, which aimed to dramatically expand LNG output and secure up to 20% of the global LNG market between 2030 and 2035, compared with roughly 8% today. These ambitions have been undermined by sanctions imposed in response to the Ukraine conflict, particularly measures targeting Arctic energy projects and export infrastructure. Among the most affected developments is the Arctic LNG 2 project, which has faced repeated delays and operational challenges since sanctions tightened.
According to Russia’s recently revised long-term energy strategy, LNG production is now projected to reach between 90 million and 105 million tonnes by 2030, rising further to 110–130 million tonnes by 2036. While these figures still suggest growth, they fall short of earlier timelines. Novak acknowledged that the original goal of reaching 100 million tonnes has become unattainable in the near term due to restrictions on technology, financing, logistics, and access to international markets, although he did not specify a new target date.
In parallel, Novak provided an update on Russia’s broader hydrocarbons outlook, stating that oil and gas condensate production in 2025 is expected to remain broadly stable at around 516 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 10.32 million barrels per day. This represents an improvement from earlier projections that suggested a potential decline of about 1%, as previously indicated by President Vladimir Putin in October.
Despite the strategic delays, Russia’s LNG sector did record modest growth last year. LNG output increased by 5.4% in 2024 to 34.7 million tonnes, although this figure still fell short of the anticipated 35.2 million tonnes. The underperformance highlights the operational and export constraints facing the sector.
Externally, Russia is also confronting a more competitive and restrictive global LNG environment. The European Union has announced plans to ban Russian LNG imports starting January 1, 2027, potentially cutting off a key market. At the same time, competition is intensifying from the United States, which is rapidly expanding LNG exports to Europe, and from Qatar, a dominant supplier to Asian markets.
Project-level delays further illustrate the challenges. Arctic LNG 2, which began production in December 2023, managed to deliver its first cargo to end buyers in China only in August 2024, underscoring logistical and sanctions-related hurdles. Meanwhile, the Murmansk LNG project—expected to become the country’s largest LNG facility with a planned capacity of 20.4 million tonnes per year—has also encountered delays, casting additional uncertainty over Russia’s LNG expansion timeline.
