In September 2025, Russian wheat prices fell by 5.4% as the transition from policy-induced export rushes to normalized supply forces kicked in. Port inventories were substantial on the back of completion of shipments of pre-duty wheat. Good harvests from the Urals and Siberia compensated for losses in the drought hit southern area. Improved shipping efficiencies, (more available barges and a consequent quicker turnaround of vessels) relieved further supply prospects. A stronger ruble and new export duties cut dollar income and curtailed the incentive for exports. Demand slowed as worldwide buyers started to cut back on spot buying while awaiting quality data on southern wheat and domestic wheat consumption remained steady but cautious. A narrower arbitrage, weaker global wheat futures and competition from other origins curtailed export demand, much of which had to be concentrated on the scarce southern milling grades. It seems that the developments in the market will remain cautious unless southern yields reduce production or logistical constraints develop.
In September 2025 the Russian wheat market went down, Wheat FOB Novorossiysk prices fell by 5.4%. This big move was driven by supply normalization, logistics improvement and changing demand patterns, marking a departure from the policy-driven volatility seen in prior months.
The supply side of the wheat market changed in September as the market moved away from the August pre-duty rush. In the summer exporters were rushing to ship before the duties were increased, so wheat was stockpiling at the ports and terminals. By early September this loading was mostly done, and the volume was above seasonal norms. This temporary oversupply took the pressure off the spot market. At the same time wheat from Siberia and the Urals was coming in ahead of schedule, more than expected. This extra volume added to regional volumes, partially offsetting losses from southern regions where both planted wheat areas and yields were significantly down. Shipping efficiency also improved with more barges available and faster vessel turnaround times and export volumes increased. Previously congested transport corridors were cleared and wheat logistics were smoother.
Macroeconomic factors and policy changes also played a role. The ruble appreciation reduced dollar earnings for exporters, so there was less incentive to front load shipments. And the new wheat export duties eliminated the urgency to ship, adding to the downward pressure on prices. All these factors – completed pre-duty flows, stronger than expected non-southern wheat harvests, better logistics and reduced dollar returns – resulted in 5.4% fall in FOB Novorossiysk prices.
On the demand side, September saw a move from urgent buying to a more measured approach. The pre-duty buying frenzy that was present earlier in the wheat market subsided as international buyers scaled back spot inquiries and tenders. Instead, demand was focused on fulfilling existing contracted shipments as buyers waited for clarity on the southern harvest. Domestically, wheat consumption for feed and milling provided a base demand but millers were cautious and limited spot buying until the final crop composition and protein profiles were confirmed. External demand was further tempered by narrower arbitrage opportunities as global wheat futures softened and the ruble strengthened, reducing export margins in dollar terms. This made alternative origins more competitive and fewer new purchases from traditional Black Sea buyers. Milling grade wheat from southern regions supported local premiums but not enough to support the overall market.
Looking forward, the market will be driven by several factors. Negative revisions to southern wheat yields or renewed logistical issues could spark demand and price volatility. But without those issues, export demand will be moderate and wheat price support will not reach the policy driven peaks of August. The Russian market is stabilizing but still sensitive to both domestic harvest and global market. As buyers are prioritizing quality and watching southern wheat production, the market will be cautious in the short term and prices will reflect a more balanced supply demand.
