Russian Wheat Prices Extend Rally in April Amid Tight Supply and Export Constraints

The Russian wheat price movement entered April 2025 with continued growth stemming from strong March performance. According to ChemAnalyst the market rally will continue in the second half of April because of restricted exports and transportation problems and elevated supply costs.

• The Russian wheat market continued its price increases through April 2025 due to constrained export capabilities and limited supply levels.
• March wheat exports showed an almost 65% decrease compared to the previous year leading to a major reduction of Russia's worldwide trading power while pushing customer needs toward alternative exporters.
• Export capacity declined during this period because fewer exporters and terminals actively operated thus making supply-side challenges worse.
• The domestic rise in costs through inflation alongside rising transportation costs sustained steady price growth.
• Extended Russian wheat export restrictions combined with inferior worldwide growing conditions will sustain elevated wheat prices into April's latter half.

The market sustains its position because supply-demand equilibrium tightened after world export activity plummeted sharply. Wheat exports from Russia declined by approximately 65 percent during March 2025 when they reached 1.784 million tons compared to the previous year's 5.126 million tons. The strong decline in Russian exports diminished its position in global trade which led international buyers to acquire from alternate origins in European Union territories and the United States. Outbound wheat trading capacity experienced growing obstacles after the export participant numbers dropped to 25 in March from 90 in the previous year accompanied by a reduction in operational export terminals from 15 to 11.

Worsening conditions for wheat cultivation across major wheat-producing areas including Russia and parts of Europe alongside aspects of the U.S. present supply-deteriorating factors that strengthen bullish market feelings throughout global wheat markets. The international availability of wheat remains restricted because Russia maintains its wheat export quota at 10.6 million tons throughout February 15 to June 30, 2025, which enhances the competition among importers.

Domestically, elevated inflation and climbing production costs have added additional pressure, particularly on transportation and energy expenses, which are feeding into overall wheat pricing. Market sources also point to limited government pricing incentives for exporters, which have made international sales less attractive despite strong overseas demand.

Despite some softening in international wheat benchmarks, Russian wheat prices have remained firm due to structural market constraints, including sanctions-related trade complexities and internal cost inflation. This resilient price environment reflects sustained domestic consumption, precautionary procurement by importing nations, and reduced trade flexibility.

With tight fundamentals continuing to shape market dynamics, analysts anticipate that Russian wheat prices will maintain their upward momentum through the rest of April, barring any significant shifts in policy or weather developments.