Between 5 and 12 November, the trans-Pacific freight market exhibited a tentative rebound: spot rates on the Asia-to-North America route edged up modestly, driven by carriers’ general rate increases (GRIs) at the start of the month. Containers from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast rose by roughly 9%, while east-coast-bound shipments moved up ~8%. Yet underlying fundamentals remain weak — forwarders report discounted spot rates for some sailings, with offers in the US$1,900-2,100 per 40-ft range, signalling cautious carrier behaviour given soft demand and growing capacity.
Between 5 and 12 November, the trans-Pacific freight market exhibited a tentative rebound: spot rates on the Asia-to-North America route edged up modestly, driven by carriers’ general rate increases (GRIs) at the start of the month. Containers from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast rose by roughly 9%, while east-coast-bound shipments moved up ~8%. Yet underlying fundamentals remain weak — forwarders report discounted spot rates for some sailings, with offers in the US$1,900-2,100 per 40-ft range, signalling cautious carrier behaviour given soft demand and growing capacity.
On the volume side, cargo flows on the east-bound trans-Pacific corridor have been in decline — dropping by about 8-9% over the past two months — which adds to the pressure on carriers seeking to hold rates. Meanwhile, one cost relief move occurred: U.S. authorities announced a 12-month pause on port fees for Chinese-linked vessels beginning 10 November. While this eases one surcharge, it has not yet triggered a meaningful upswing in volume or immediate uplift in negotiated long-term rates.
In parallel with trans-Pacific dynamics, significant developments in the Red Sea/Suez corridor are influencing the broader shipping landscape and therefore indirectly impacting trans-Pacific shipping cost structure and routing decisions. A major shipping risk factor has shifted: the Houthi Movement in Yemen signalled that it has halted attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, issuing a letter to Hamas in which it stated that maritime operations will resume only “if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza”. No fresh attacks have been claimed since the cease-fire holds.
Concurrently, the Suez Canal authority engaged major shipping lines in early November and reported that 229 vessels re-entered the Suez route in October — the highest single-month return rate since the crisis began. The Canal’s traffic index (July-October 2025) showed 4,405 vessels carrying 185 million tons compared with 4,332 vessels with 167.6 million tons during the same period in 2024.
Rates are likely to remain stable to slightly elevated compared with recent troughs, supported by the GRI initiation and tighter sailing schedules (blank sailings). However, significant upside is unlikely unless demand unexpectedly accelerates. Demand in the trans-Pacific will remain under pressure: retailers are running down inventory, and the window for restocking ahead of the peak U.S. holiday season is narrow. Capacity discipline will be the lynchpin: carriers will need to continue blanking sailings or holding smaller vessels to prevent rate erosion — the return of the Suez route alters deployment options, increasing complexity. It remains a good time to secure space and lock rate commitments if volume is planned, but negotiating power is still with shippers for non-priority cargo. Avoid assuming rates will keep climbing — planning for a flat or mildly down scenario is prudent.
