Sluggish Demand Caused Asian Ammonium Nitrate Prices to remain on a Stable Trajectory

Ammonium Nitrate Prices have tumbled in Asia due to the stable market sentiment; however, signs of negative view have emerged in both the east and west as a lot of commodities' pricing is taking a nose-dive. The last known shipments of Indonesian Ammonium Nitrate in Southeast Asia were in August. In the meantime, regional producers have acknowledged that consumers are increasingly looking for lower prices in their neighboring markets. Ammonium Nitrate's value has dropped significantly, both on a CFR and FOB basis. The recent decline in the global Urea market has dramatically impacted Ammonium Nitrate prices, as consumers are no longer willing to pay a significant price for Ammonium Nitrate compared to Urea per unit of Nitrogen.

In July 2022, prices for the Chinese Ammonium Nitrate market stabilized after experiencing a 2% marginal increase the month prior. The demand-supply gap was believed to be narrowing due to reducing downstream demand and enabling supply fundamentals. Feedstock costs also tended to decline in the near term, which may help stabilize the product market. The region's energy market disruption has raised input costs for regional businesses. However, a decrease in material demand in the Chinese market caused Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Shandong prices to stabilize at USD 733 per MT at the end of July 2022.

Due to the consistency in demand for explosives, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in the Indonesian market has been a stable month after month. A considerable number of inventories were available during the first week of August. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused supply chains to become disrupted, which led to a rebalancing of the world's supply of ammonium nitrate. With the easing of COVID 19 lockout limits, sellers and traders noticed no inventory pressure and a steady increase in market activity nationwide. As a result, the spot price of Ammonium Nitrate ex-Bontang decreased somewhat by 0.9% in July, ending at USD 800/tonne.

Overall, depending on the demand of the downstream industry, it is projected that the Asian Ammonium Nitrate market will remain constant with minor variations. The adequate inventories kept by Indian domestic merchants will meet the total demand in the end-user mining and explosives industries.