Sluggish Demand Outlook Led to Plunge in Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Across Europe

Russia: According to our sources, the Hot-Rolled Coil prices in the European market witnessed negative sentiments owing to the weak demand amidst the subdued trading activity. Additionally, various traders and service centres reported different Hot-Rolled Coil prices settling at USD 890-950/MT. As per market participants, no deals for German Hot Rolled Coil could be confirmed as buyers anticipated different prices to drop, backed by the limited transactions. However, mills are slashing production activity to suit market demand as buyers push to consume stock levels before the price depreciation.

As per European Hot Rolled Coil manufacturing companies, declining feedstock prices put pressure on mills in the regional market, and production cuts are now the only means to combat the adverse price trend. However, firms are yet to announce production cuts in capacities, preferring to decrease shifts and extend traditional maintenance durations. Manufacturers expect buyers to wait until September for further purchasing activity, expressing concern that price movement and muted demand would cause current production levels to be unsuitable. As per firms, demand is weak, and higher piling-up inventories in the market further prompted buyers not to book beyond minimum volumes, as prices are falling daily with nobody liking to book the quotations, thus subduing trading activities. Mills are anticipating Hot Rolled Coil prices to continue on a slower drop into mid-July when prices will stabilise into the summer shutdown period.

European distributors claim that the market is frozen; there are no inquiries for Hot Rolled Coil. Buyers may return in June to restock their inventory levels, but the Russia-Ukraine war and the lockdown in China have too many uncertainties. Hot rolled coil imports could glide in and push the domestic market down further. However, Russian exporters have already continued to lower their prices for hot-rolled coil to Turkey, while export slab demand has remained quite due to uncertainty in the raw materials sector. Additionally, as per our sources, the Turkish Trade Authority is set to announce an antidumping duty decision on European Hot-Rolled Coil imports in late June or early July.

As per ChemAnalyst, "The Hot Rolled Coil prices are anticipated to decline till mid-July when prices stabilise in the summer shutdown." As a ripple effect, bearish demand would diminish the prices of Hot Rolled Coil in the European market.