The Asian soda ash market kept sliding in the week ended July 11, 2025, as a continued mismatch between demand and supply kept the price under stress. The average price of soda ash traded flat, based on market statistics, showing a steep decline month-over-month and a fall year-over-year. Even though cheaper than production cost for most producers, the prevailing oversupply and weak downstream consumption have kept any significant rebound in check, with overall market sentiment still bearish.
On the supply side, some producers like China National Salt Kunshan and Shandong Haihua conducted maintenance shutdowns in June and early July. Overall capacity utilization was still high at an estimated 85% in the Soda Ash market. The short-term cut in production did not much chip into inventory levels, with overall inventories still more than 2 million tons in China. In the meantime, the near-term return of equipment from maintenance and the return to production at major participants such as Lianyungang Alkali imply additional supply pressure in the near term.
Besides, Soda Ash quotations from traders continue to be more aggressive than those from producers, continuing to push price pressure in the spot market. Although there was a short-term effort last weekend to raise under-priced soda ash, poor acceptance from downstream customers indicated weak support for the price rise.
On the demand side, the situation is no less precarious. The float glass industry, being one of the major off-takers of soda ash, continues to grapple with declining profits, reduced orders, and increasing cash flows. Real estate markers, new housing starts, and investment registered double-digit year-over-year drops between January and May 2025, signaling persistent pressure in the construction industry.
Photovoltaic glass, another major downstream use, has similarly exhibited bearish sentiment. Daily melting volume last month was 1.65% lower than the preceding month and 14.26% lower than the same period last year. Excess capacity in PV glass, increasing inventories, and soft spot deals all point to the fact that soda ash demand in this market will not rebound anytime soon. Industry players have further observed that downstream firms are increasingly turning to price reductions and might even order cold shutdowns to reduce inventory pressures in the Soda Ash market.
As light alkali demand is equally muted and the majority of buyers follow a just-in-time strategy, prevailing demand patterns continue to be less than favorable. The general perception is that, barring a drastic change in downstream activity, there could be further declines in soda ash use.
As per ChemAnalyst, the Soda Ash market players predict limited upside potential. The price is still short of delivery costs. In case spot prices do not shoot up, futures above this level could induce arbitrage activity instead of lasting market recovery. Therefore, Asia's soda ash market is likely to remain weakly stable for the near term and is expected to be closely monitored by downstream trends as well as policy trends.
