China's Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) prices experienced choppy price patterns all the way through to July 2025, as the market exhibited tenuous deals between changing supply dynamics and subdued demand patterns.
During the week ending 4 July, MTBE prices increased by 1.4% mainly due to a constrained domestic supply as a result of ongoing and previously shut-down domestic plants. The tight supply was exacerbated by increased feedstock prices, which placed pressure on producers. On the demand side, vacation travel and increased commercial activities that typically happen in summer increased gasoline consumption, which had a slight supporting effect on the MTBE market.
This bullish tone could not be sustained as bearish market forces took an immediate hold. In the week of 11 July 2025, MTBE prices decreased by 0.7% weighed down by oversupply and weak demand fundamentals. Stocks remained elevated while crude oil trends softened, encouraging producers to issue shipment discounts due to consumer buying power being weaker than the market expected. Although global crude prices accommodated some volatility from tensions in the Middle East, the domestic MTBE market had less opportunity, as there was a high local availability and weak demand.
On July 18, the market experienced a small uptick, and MTBE prices increased 1.8%. Driven by increased export orders, domestic availability was becoming tight, with many producers holding back cargoes to consolidate at the port. Furthermore, as a result of the stage restocking by downstream buyers, there was minimal amount of support in the overall market. Kaiyi New Material was expected to ramp up, while Dongming Qianhai was going down for turnarounds, which provided a little relief on the supply side. Although OPEC+'s output and the tariffs from the U.S. continued to pose concern, improved gasoline demand seasonally helped maintain some downstream interest for MTBE.
MTBE prices fell 1.3% during the week of 25 July, driven by slumping export volumes and declining international oil prices — pressured by the OPEC+ production outlook and pending trade policy — reduced momentum in the domestic market. The demand side trends remained lackluster with refined fuel price caps being reviewed since traders were unwilling to pay more for a refined fuel when crude prices are so volatile. While downstream procurement continued at the median pace, the limited catalyst for bullish sentiment for products reduced momentum. Conversely, on the supply side, there is some indication that a future planned Dongming Qianhai plant shutdown may reduce MTBE production in a small timeframe, which will give some support against more price fallout.
