Transpacific Rates Cool Slightly as Typhoon-Driven China Port Congestion Persists

Transpacific Ocean Freight News Report

What Happened?

The first week of September saw an easing in the transpacific ocean rates even as congestion at major Chinese ports remained severe. The west coast spot rates dropped 3% to $9,505 per FEU still roughly in line with the 2024 peak season levels seen during the red sea diversion crisis and east coast labour strike front loading.

At the same time, congestion at Ningbo and Ningbo's neighbour Shanghai worsened through the week. As of September 4, Shanghai's average vessel waiting time stood at 5.46 days, with 6.41 days of arrival delay and 6.13 days of departure delay, the port had 42 vessels at berth and 99 at anchorage. Waiting times at individual terminals ran far higher Shanghai’s WGQ2 and WGQ5 exceeded nine days after reopening, and Ningbo's MSICT recorded five-to-six-day average delays. Ningbo's yard occupancy sat between 92% and 95%

Why It Happened

The congestion is the cascading result of multiple typhoons over the past month, most recently Typhoon Saudel, which made landfall around August 26 and shut Ningbo for 78 of the preceding seven days and closed sections of Shanghai's port for up to 54 hours.

This disruption extended as far north as Busan, South Korea, and could still reach Shenzhen. Carriers have responded by skipping affected Chinese ports outright: OOCL's (Orient Overseas Container Line) Lilac skipped Shanghai and routed west through the Indian Ocean to reach New York by month's end, while CMA CGM's Leo made a one-off Suez Canal passage from Shanghai toward Norfolk. Ningbo terminals have introduced new controls, capping the rolling ratio for local exports below 10% and limiting international transshipment dwell time to under seven days.

Despite the congestion the rates cooled because peak season demand driven by elevated bookings from early May through late July has begun to taper as the season enters its final weeks, with Freightos suggesting further Transpacific rate increases are now unlikely.

What It Means

The two trends pulling in opposite directions softening demand-driven rates, worsening supply-side congestion illustrate a market in transition rather than a clean signal either way. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben-Jansen expects port congestion to remain "fairly structural" for years, noting China's export volumes have grown 10%, 6% and 7% in successive years against an expected 3-4% baseline a persistent mismatch between demand growth and port/hinterland capacity. Separately, Sea-Intelligence estimated on August 30 that worsening global port congestion has made 6.6% of the world's containership fleet effectively unavailable, with a return to June 2025 congestion levels likely taking four and a half to six months even if conditions stabilize now.

Short-Term Outlook

Transpacific freight charges are anticipated to remain elevated in the near future, but the easing seen in the latest week suggests that the market may be moving past the strongest phase of peak season pricing. Further rate increases appear less likely if demand continues to moderate toward October.

However, continued typhoon activity remains a key risk. Additional weather disruptions could prevent Shanghai, Ningbo and other Asian hubs from clearing their existing vessel and container backlogs. Carriers may also continue to skip congested ports or alter vessel routings, which could reduce direct port congestion but increase transit times and create additional pressure on regional transshipments hubs.