The Transpacific freight market continued to decline as earlier November rate increases failed to hold against rising capacity and soft seasonal demand. Global container benchmarks during this period averaged near USD 1,800 per forty-foot container, while Transpacific spot levels moved lower. Market assessments placed Shanghai to Los Angeles rates in the USD 2,200 to USD 2,400 per FEU range and Shanghai to New York rates broadly in the USD 2,900 to USD 3,100 range, signalling that much of the lift gained from the 1 November GRI had evaporated. Daily spot indications often printed below weekly averages, confirming that large shippers were negotiating down carrier posted levels due to limited booking urgency and broader vessel availability.
A key factor behind the retreat was the return of vessel capacity to core east- west networks as carriers prepared to resume portion of the shorter Suez Canal routing. As Red Sea risk eased and diversions wound down, substantial TEU capacity began flowing back to core Asia- Europe loops, adding significant supply to Transpacific services. Analysts noted that the restored Suez routing could return more than 2 million TEU of capacity to the global network over the coming weeks, creating further downward pressure on spot prices.
Carriers attempted to counter these pressures by filing new GRIs and revenue recovery charges for implementation on 1 December. Some lines also pushed Freight All Kinds levels on Asia to Europe trades in the USD 3,100 to USD 4,000 per FEU band as part of early contract season strategies, although prevailing spot levels on that corridor remained around USD 2,200 to USD 2,400 due to tighter capacity management . However, Transpacific lanes did not support similar increases, and carriers withdrew or softened several of their planned GRI amounts as booking levels remained weak. The divergence between regions became clearer, with Asia to Europe benefitting modestly from disciplined blank sailings, while Asia to United States rates continued to underperform.
The developments in policy also played their part in influencing sentiment. United States-China trade steps that were confirmed in late November reduced some tariff and port fee elements, including the short-term suspension of measures connected with maritime logistics and shipbuilding. However, key duties remained in place. According to government documents, baseline tariffs close to 10% plus additional rates to 25% on specific Chinese goods remain in effect through the next review period. The partial easing has worked its way into a modest recovery for bulk agricultural shipments, but containerized imports have yet to find meaningful improvement. Many United States retailers continued cautious restocking, citing uncertain consumer demand and tariff-related cost pressures.
In the near term the Transpacific market is expected to remain under pressure as returning capacity and soft demand cap pricing power. Carriers should maintain strict capacity discipline by limiting frequency on under booked loops and deploying smaller vessels where possible. GRIs should be targeted at specific sailings with genuine space constraints rather than broad headline increases. Carriers should emphasise reliability driven premium services to secure higher-yield cargo and should closely monitor the operational impact of tariff adjustments and potential sourcing shifts from China toward Southeast Asian origins. Maintaining flexible port rotations and capacity planning will be essential until consistent demand recovery emerges.
