Ukraine’s Wheat Prices Surge in March 2025 Amid Strong Global Demand

The wheat market in Ukraine continued its upward trend in the first half of March 2025, following a steady price hike since January 2025. The prices are set to rise even further in the second half of the month, according to ChemAnalyst. The prevailing supply shortages, heighten global demand, and external market pressures are set to maintain the price upward in the domestic as well as the international markets.

• Ukrainian wheat prices surged during early March 2025 and are likely to rise further amidst sustained supply restraint.
• Low stocks, poor winter wheat harvests, and a shift to spring crops have contributed to supply shortages.
• Russia's wheat export quota has diverted international buyers to Ukraine, boosting export volumes and putting pressure on domestic supplies.
• Weather problems in the usual high-yielding wheat-producing countries such as Argentina and the U.S. have tightened world wheat supplies even more.
• With high international demand and supply uncertainties persisting, prices of Ukrainian wheat will remain on the rise.

Ukraine wheat prices jumped sharply in the first half of the march as inventories dwindled and farm producers' supply was constricted. Poor weather in Ukraine also provided support for market volatility. As, in Ukraine, a mild winter with successive thaws and the absence of proper snow cover affected winter wheat fields in central and northern areas of the country, lowering total potential yield. Winter wheat planting was also shunned by most farmers, with most of them cultivating spring wheat because they feared there would be a drought at the best planting period, thereby further increasing supply limits in the subsequent months.

The rising export demand is still the key driver of the expected price rise in Ukraine. As Russia introduce wheat export quota from February 15 to June 30, 2025, this has disrupted world supply chains. Russia's traditional wheat importers have turned to Ukraine, and this has resulted in export volumes rising and exerting additional pressure on already short domestic supplies. Despite logistical issues and geopolitical tensions, Ukrainian wheat exports have been strong, with a competitive share in the international market.

Adding to the supply-demand deficiency, weather-related interruptions in Argentina and other top wheat-exporting countries have helped to lower global wheat stocks. Lower wheat exports from major exporters have provided greater scope for Ukrainian farmers, adding to solid demand and further price hikes.  As a result, various traders also states that, the demand for premium spring wheat will continue to be solid throughout the year, which may continue to support the Ukraine's export market drive.

Market players are looking closely at weather, geopolitics, and trade policy, all of which are expected to shape the future price actions for wheat in the forthcoming period. With supply uncertainties still ongoing and global demand still supportive, prices of Ukrainian wheat are expected to continue their uptrend, further solidifying the bullish sentiment of the global grain market.