US Base Oil Market Stabilize in Early Dec 2025, Weak Outlook Ahead as Chevron Announces Price Cuts

US Base Oil Market Stabilize in Early Dec 2025, Weak Outlook Ahead as Chevron Announces Price Cuts

Jacob Kutchner 10-Dec-2025

US base oil markets recorded flat pricing in the first trading week of December 2025. Meanwhile, Chevron has cut its posted prices for Group II base oils, pointing to a lower trend for the next weeks. Demand stayed weak due to seasonal downturn for automotive lubricants, and slowing manufacturing. Mexican and South American exports into the buying were limited, while India sought an alternative in cheaper Asian-origin barrels. Supply availability improved after the resumption of Excel Paralubes and better spot flows from Southeast Asia following the ExxonMobil upgrade. NEXBASE 4 XP underwrites Chevron confirming US Group III+ production from Q4 2026, a move that is set to redefine supply of premium-grade, was one such significant development of the market. In the wake of softening crude after OPEC+ output increases and inventory liquidation at the year end, base oil prices in the United States are expected to fall by late December, as noted by market analysts.

Key Highlights

  • Chevron announces Group II base oil posted price decreases, expected to pressure December pricing.
  • Chevron to begin US Group III+ base oil production (NEXBASE x XP) from Qx xxxx.
  • Base oil domestic demand soft, with weak automotive and industrial oil consumption.
  • Inventory surplus and cheaper feedstock crude oil push market toward expected base oil price decline.

ChemAnalyst indicates that the price of base oil Group II H xxx was unchanged at USD x,xxx/tonne FOB Texas, USA in the first week of December xxxx, during the Thanksgiving holiday. However, market sentiment suddenly turned bearish as Chevron released a posted price reduction for its Group II base oils, effective on second Week of December xxxx. The announcement, while not entirely unexpected, fueled even greater expectations for falling prices amid an increasing focus among suppliers on destocking before year-end following weak domestic demand and ample inventories.

Chevron also unveiled a significant strategic move...

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