Global crude oil prices experienced a marked increase in late August 2025. On August 26, 2025, WTI Crude Oil rose 1.2%, and Brent crude oil increased by 1.4%. Market fundamentals were reinforced by observations of larger-than-expected declines in US inventories, increased geopolitical risk due to drone strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and expected strong summer demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday, which outweighed concerns about the OPEC+ increase in production and oversupply. These forces reinforced upward crude oil momentum and resulted in mixed forecasts for September.
Key Highlights
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US crude oil inventories declined by *.* million barrels to ***.* million barrels in the week ending August **, which was larger than expectations and indicates tighter supply.
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There has been an escalation of geopolitical risks due to drone attacks on Russian refineries and Ukraine&#**;s energy infrastructure, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude oil supplies.
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Summer demand is strong, particularly for gasoline, stimulated by people preparing to travel for Labor Day, and consumer spending is holding crude oil up well.
On the demand side, crude oil consumption in the United States was quite resilient, and it appeared to be strengthened by seasonalities and economic buoyancy. Gasoline demand during the Labor Day weekend which is typically the busiest travel weekend during the driving season. The...
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