As of December of 2025, US diesel markets presented mixed signals, with increasing monthly average prices by approximately 0.8% despite a significant decline over the last few months of the calendar year. Increased average prices primarily were attributable to temporary tightening due to refinery maintenance, higher export demand, and increased seasonal use. Later in the fourth quarter, supply conditions improved and were bearish on prices due to strong refinery runs built-during distillate inventories and softening post-holiday demand. In addition to these factors, the global market also continued to heavily influence the overall market's sentiment via sustained diesel exports to Europe, along with ongoing geopolitical risks that are impacting supply chains. The overall weakness at the end of the calendar year indicates a return of easing fundamentals; however, structural constraints in key market locations and continued exposure to international demand have kept the market vulnerable to short-term price fluctuations as it begins 2026.
The final weeks of 2025 were marked by divergent signals in the diesel market in the US Due to improvements in supply conditions (Logistics and Refinery Operations), however regionally imbalanced conditions (particularly along the Eastern seaboard) remain in place. As such, pricing dynamics for diesel in the US have been affected as the market is sensitive to domestic infrastructure limitations and the fluctuations of International Trade.
US Diesel Prices saw a slight monthly rise of about 0.8% on average in line with tightness (i.e., reduced supply) noted throughout parts of this timeframe, exception made of facility repairs on refineries, increased interest for exports, and additional use tied to winter months. However, this limited growth and significant decrease seen in December end mainly due to weaker demand conditions, higher-distillate stockpiles and lower price trends for crudes evidenced that some fundamental short-term conditions appeared to trump continuing downward pressures (in general) on fuel prices within the longer-term marketplace.
As distillates stored increased due to high refinery usage levels and import activity returning to the Atlantic Coast, the conditions for supply began improving. Diesel production remained strong due to refiners running near capacity and crude oil inventories were depleting because of lower import volume. With lower seasonal demand after the holidays, upward price pressure in wholesale and retail markets decreased. The December price percentile decreased due to aggregate of many of these same factors.
The global influences that have been impacting diesel markets in the US are continuing to affect them. High levels of diesel demand from Europe due to sanctions-related supply disruptions have kept US Gulf Coast export salvos flowing, which has at times restricted the quantity of diesel that could be delivered domestically. However, due to ongoing geopolitical instability associated with Russia and Venezuela, the overall market sentiment has created a floor on price, even while the fundamental aspects of supply are becoming more relaxed or weak.
The relationship between available diesel for export and the availability of diesel for the regional supply in the Northeast part of the US is very relevant due to the limited amount of refining capacity in this region and as such the increased dependence on imported diesel and pipeline shipments.
While looking into the future, the price of diesel fuel is predicted to be stable but also fluctuating throughout early part of 2026. The average price prediction for 2026 indicates a lower average price than in 2025 due to reduced crude oil benchmarks, increases in crude oil supplies globally. There will also continue to exist short-term risk factors related to upcoming scheduled maintenance at refineries, uncertain direction about government policy on biofuels, and increases in demand related to weather events.
