US Diesel Prices to reach $5.5/gallon? Valero Refinery Explosion Adds New Supply Concerns

The U.S. diesel market witnessed significant volatility through February and March 2026, with prices maintaining a strong upward trajectory. In February, tightening distillate balances, seasonal demand from heating and agriculture, and multiple refinery outages led to reduced supply and declining inventories. Refinery maintenance turnarounds and force majeure events across key facilities further constrained diesel availability, while steady demand from the transportation sector supported consumption levels. In March, diesel prices surged and hovered near USD 5 per gallon, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil costs. Disruptions in global energy trade, particularly due to tensions involving Iran and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, intensified supply pressure in an already tight market. Toward the end of March, a major explosion at the Valero Port Arthur refinery introduced additional supply-side uncertainty. The outage at one of the largest U.S. refineries raised concerns about further tightening in diesel availability. Looking ahead, diesel prices are expected to remain elevated, with potential for further increases as global disruptions and limited refining capacity continue to influence market dynamics.