US Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Persist in Falling During Mid-Q4 Amidst Upcoming Holidays

New Delhi: Hot-Rolled Coil prices have been trending downward in the US market in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to the limited trading activity and lower demand outlook. According to market participants, Hot-Rolled Coil prices have fallen closer to the USD 660/MT mark, despite market participants mentioning that steel mills were at or nearing their break-even points last week. The weekly domestic US Hot-Rolled Coil Midwest assessment fell about 5% and settled at USD 688.85/MT, while the southern assessment fell by 4% and fixed at USD 690.50/MT.

According to our sources, Hot-Rolled Coil lead times in the Midwest have decreased from 4-5 weeks to 3-4 weeks. Hot-Rolled Coil manufacturers quoted offers ranging from USD 660-770/MT, with the majority of tradable prices falling between USD 600-660/MT. A little activity was reported in the spot market as it began to slow as the holiday season approached. After playing a prominent role in the previous week's market chatter, there have been a few comments this week about mill break-even points.

Market participants expected that downstream demand to fall throughout the rest of the year and during the holiday season. Some market participants were concerned that the first quarter would begin slowly, similar to how the Hot-Rolled Coil market started in January 2022, taking several weeks to develop. According to early indications of the December scrap trade, prices will be close to sideways compared to November. According to sources, the bushel scrap price has fallen for the past seven months in a row.

Furthermore, a possible rail walkout that would reverberate throughout the US economy in December has moved closer to reality, with one of the largest unions voting down a draught labor agreement. A strike could disrupt a large part of the United States economy, including scrap shipments into Hot-Rolled Coil mills and finished steel shipments out of them. As a result, ChemAnalyst expects Hot-Rolled Coil prices to fall in the upcoming weeks due to low transactional activity and the Thanksgiving holiday.