China's domestic Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) market was generally stable from October 1 to 24, 2025, even as underlying weakness in demand and growing pressure from the supply side were felt. In the aftermath of the National Day holiday, the market observed a modest decline in transaction focus, but prices were underpinned by a steep pickup in export business. In comparison, the U.S. MTBE market saw a sharp price surge in early October, driven by supply tightness, firm gasoline blending demand, and logistical problems. But during the week of Oct 24, prices in the U.S. began weakening on slackening demand and improved refinery run rates, which may be a precursor to stabilization.
Gasoline terminal demand eased after the holiday, putting pressure on MTBE consumption. Yet increased export volumes by some producers underpinned the domestic market. MTBE exports amounted to 456,100 tons in September, the General Administration of Customs data showed—1.18% less than a month ago but ballooning 495.16% from last year. Imports also rose to 50,000 tons, or 127.70% more than the previous month.
On the cost front, prices of global crude dropped, weighed down by bearish signals from the International Energy Agency on long-term oversupply concerns. Trade tensions involving the United States also hurt global demand sentiment. All these factors combined dragged down oil prices, reducing MTBE production costs. There was some support later in the month as the United States imposed tighter sanctions on Russia and crude inventories dropped, giving a temporary fillip to oil markets.
Despite this, downstream gasoline demand remained sluggish. Markets' expectations of a new round of refined oil retail price limits were diminished, and refineries continued to cut prices amid flat trading activities. The bearish sentiment in the oil market also undermined the sentiment along the MTBE value chain.
On the supply side, some facilities stepped up operations. Sanjiang Petrochemical and Heilongjiang Xinrui Chemical commenced building new plants, and Yuhuang Shengrong, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongfang Hongye also increased production. Although Hebei Xinxinyuan was under maintenance, the overall operating rate of the industry improved, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply outlook for MTBE.
US MTBE prices increased by 19.1% during the first half of October, supported by tight supply in the Gulf Coast and steady demand from gasoline blending. Output losses at key methanol facilities, natural gas volatility, and logistics problems tightened availability, while firm gasoline production and reduced inventories supported purchasing interest. However, during the week of Oct 24, MTBE prices started to ease on softening gasoline demand, poor buying interest, and constrained refinery run rates. Despite ongoing exports and high plant utilization, the MTBE market was weighed down by bearish trends, indicating range-bound pricing in the near term.
As per ChemAnalyst, the MTBE market can remain under pressure in both the U.S. and China unless there is a steep turnaround in gasoline demand or a sustained-uptick in crude oil prices. While exports have provided temporary relief in China, and Gulf Coast exports to Latin America have provided relief to U.S. volumes, domestic fundamentals in both the markets suggest limited room for price hikes. In China, higher supply from newly commissioned plants and weak terminal demand for gasoline is putting pressure on sentiment, while in the U.S., unimpressive regional demand and hand-to-mouth purchasing patterns are tempering earlier gains. The tug-of-war between higher supply and loose demand will be instrumental in influencing the MTBE market direction for the remainder of the month.
