US progesterone prices rose sharply in March, driven by tighter export availability and buying. Early-March spot offers rose as replacement costs strengthened and domestic uptake from fertility clinics remained resilient; emission-control quotas in China reduced spot export volumes and lengthened lead times. Mid-month logistics on the China-US lane narrowed arbitrage and lifted landed costs for Asia-origin cargoes. Buyers across hospital and veterinary channels accelerated procurement ahead of late-quarter programs, sustaining trade despite higher costs. Demand patterns were the main driver of the rise, with fertility/IVF clinics especially active as they pre-ordered ahead of April embryo-transfer programs; hospital and other channels expanded orders moderately following the late-March introduction of a generic progesterone vaginal insert, broadening formulary access. Export controls and higher finishing costs tightened supply, with diosgenin reliance remaining a structural risk. Importers boosted safety stocks as DSCSA checks lengthened clearance, supporting buying even as landed costs rose. Near-term outlook remains mixed, skewed toward early-spring strength, with supply and logistics pressure.
