The price of US imported rapeseed oil has continued to soften in November, with prices weakening month by month due to the current challenges faced by the global vegetable oil industry. The main factor behind the weakening trend of US import prices is the abundant supply of global rapeseed oil, as large-scale producers like Canada, Australia, and the EU have experienced a bumper harvest. Demand-side factors are also responsible for the reduction. Industrial buyers, including biofuel manufacturers, have started to move partially towards cheaper substitutes such as soybean and palm oil, thus suppressing prices of rapeseed oil. The overall weakening trend among vegetable oils, with which palm oil and sunflower oil prices have fallen, also supported the trend. Furthermore, fluctuation in exchange rates and trade policies US rapeseed oil consumers has focused on delaying purchases or receiving lower prices, thus contributing to further price decline. While with respect to the further market dynamics, various analysts forecast a continuous weakness through December 2025 also, pending any unexpected events such as supply shortages or policy shifts, with weak market conditions expected to persist through early 2026.
Import prices for rapeseed oil in the US have shown a pronounced drop in November with prices decreased by 1.5%, continuing a multi-month trend that has been evident through the final quarter of 2025. According to industry insiders, a range of factors including global supply chain factors, weakening demand in key markets, and overall pressure on edible oil prices has been driving the falling import prices for rapeseed oil. Initial trends suggest that the falling prices may continue through December and early 2026. According to market intelligence provided by commodity price tracking services, the cost of rapeseed oil in global markets and for imports in the US decreased for the second consecutive month in November.
Starting with the market trend, initially, the key factor supporting the price slump is the global rise in rapeseed production and inventories. Recent estimates by the US Department of Agriculture and independent experts stipulates an increase in global rapeseed output, particularly in key Northern Hemisphere producers such as Canada and Australia, has bolstered available stocks.
This is in contrast to the prevailing seasonal sentiment, which expected rather tight markets. However, this competitive dynamic has impacted the price values of rapeseed oil. For Europe and the Asian markets, the abundance of rapeseed and canola oil resulted in pressure on futures and spot prices, ultimately contributing to US import prices.
In addition, the increase in the area planted with rapeseed in major export countries, such as favorable sowing conditions in the European Union, is supportive of expected growth in production through 2026. Demand-side factors: The buyers in the industrial and food sectors have partly cut purchases due to overall edible oil price movements. Evidence from the global price indices indicates that the prices of not only rapeseed oil, but also palm oil and sunflower oil, declined in November, which might be attributed to a sector-wide trend. The price of palm oil, for instance, decreased with growing Malaysian output.
At the same time, some US industrial-scale consumers of rapeseed oil, including biofuel producers, have turned to more affordable vegetable oil substitutes for their products, such as soybean oil or palm oil, depending on blending costs. This substitution effect has held down pressures on import prices for rapeseed oil. . Moreover, trade policy considerations and exchange rates have been some of the factors that have contributed to the fall in import prices for rapeseed oil. Trade policy and exchange rates have also played a supporting role in the reduction of import prices for rapeseed oil.
Looking ahead, it is expected that most market analysts forecast the prices of rapeseed oil to continue experiencing a downward trend during the month of December 2025. In the event that there are no sharp changes in industrial demand, it is expected that the prices will remain muted. Already, one of the leading commodity price agencies has noted that rapeseed oil spot prices have continued to fall into early December, thus confirming the emerging trend of a persistent soft market. In the coming months, some of the key factors to watch for will include changes in European rapeseed futures contracts, US import levels, and Asian demand trends for rapeseed oil among major buyers
