Soda ash prices dipped in Asia due to oversupply and weak demand, especially from glass sectors, while the U.S. market remained stable with steady production, domestic demand, and limited impact from global trade tensions.
The Asian market, dominated by China, is experiencing a persistent condition of oversupply, along with sluggish downstream demand from the glass industry.
Though there have been numerous maintenance shutdowns at large Chinese soda ash producers like Boyuan Yingen, Shandong Haihua, and Henan Jinshan since May, supply-side pressures have not so far been considerably eased. Inventories still stand at record levels of more than 2 million tons. Moreover, demand for soda ash from float and solar glass producers has also softened. Float glass daily melting quantities have dropped from the record level of last year, while photovoltaic glass demand has slid on a year-on-year basis.
The current Chinese real estate slump continues to hinder float glass demand. Main construction gauges such as new house starts and investment have posted double-digit decreases from January to May 2025, showing that the industry is still in its bottoming cycle. Simultaneously, the photovoltaic glass industry is also confronting overcapacity and rising inventory levels, with no definite prospects of restoration in the short term. Consequently, consumption of soda ash from both key downstream industries continues to remain restricted, further buoying the market's bearishness.
On the supply side, although maintenance across several facilities temporarily reduced operational capacity to about 84% in May, new capacities are expected to ramp up soon. Plants like Lianyungang Alkali have already resumed operations, and Yuanxing’s new 2.8 million-ton unit is expected online by year-end, adding further pressure on supply.
Moreover, declining raw material prices have partly helped production margins. The costs of significant inputs such as coal and raw salt have fallen substantially, reducing soda ash's overall cost of production. Nevertheless, even with decreased costs, market sentiment is still cautious on account of scant pricing power.
Conversely, the U.S. soda ash industry has remained firm, with companies such as Tata Chemicals operating as usual in Wyoming. Despite concerns over tariffs and global trade fluctuations, the U.S. soda ash exports have flowed unabated. Local demand, particularly from the glass packager and detergent sectors, is steady. As the trader noted that while global tariff tensions pose risks, domestic cost structures and logistics stability are currently shielding U.S. producers from sharp price movements in the Soda Ash market.
As per ChemAnalyst, whereas Asian soda ash prices continue to be threatened by oversupply and weak demand, the U.S. market holds firm with the help of stable operations and local consumption. In the future, further increases in Asian supply capacity would exacerbate the softness of the market, unless a recovery in demand happens.
