During the period from October to mid-November 2025, it had a noticeable downward trend in the export market of U.S. soybean oil, arising from a combination of domestic and international pressures. Greater domestic demand, especially from the biofuel sector, has diverted a higher portion of production away from exports, thereby tightening up the available exportable supply. At the same time, world vegetable oil markets, including palm, sunflower, and canola oils, are exerting competitive pressure with more buyers looking for cheaper alternatives and thus weakening international demand for U.S. soybean oil. Trade uncertainties-most especially for the key markets-and swelling carry-in stocks add to price softness. Speculation in soybean oil has also abated as market participants become more accustomed to such realities, reducing upward momentum in export pricing. And that decline is likely to persist through the end of 2025 on strong domestic biofuel consumption and ample world supplies of vegetable oil, which would continue to pressure U.S. export prices for soybean oil.
It has been a volatile scenario in the U.S. soybean oil export market over the past months, especially from October up to mid-November 2025 with prices being on the downward side by 1.33% in October 2025. Although earlier in this year, buoyant demand against tightness in supply had underpinned firmer prices, the recent slide reflects a confluence of shifting domestic dynamics and global headwinds disrupting export momentum.
Even though upward pressure from strengthened biofuel demand within the United States, domestic policy incentives such as expanded blending mandates and tax credits have increased the use of soybean oil for biofuel production. Therefore, an increasing share of its production is being internally consumed into the domestic renewable diesel sector, reducing volumes available for export. This internal competition between demand for biofuel and its export allocation is tightening the exportable supply; hence, undermining inquiries from overseas markets reduced the upward price support for overseas markets of soybean oil and kept its export prices from the US on the lower side.
At the same time, global vegetable oil markets are weighing on U.S. export price competitiveness. Slowing food use in major importing countries and ample international supplies weigh on soybean oil prices, while competing oils like palm, sunflower, and canola exert downward pressure on soybean oil terms. In fact, some buyers have chosen to diversify away from U.S. soybean oil, which cuts into external demand during a time when more is already being used domestically.
Further, trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are clouding the outlook. U.S.–China trade relations remain strained, while the absence of firm export commitments from key overseas buyers is contributing to weaker forward interest. The carrying stocks for soybean oil are swelling. Strong U.S. production underpinned by favorable crushing margins fuels higher inventory levels with exportable surpluses entering into a market that is less willing to pay for U.S. origin given the higher internal demand. Market participants have also cited weakening speculative support. Long-term traders are paring back their bullish bets as the calculus of risk reward shifts. With more soybean oil staying at home, and international buyers reaching for cheaper alternatives, export price resilience is increasingly fragile. Barring fresh momentum from global buyers, the U.S. soybean oil export premium appears vulnerable.
Looking ahead, the forecast for soybean oil through the end of 2025 remains cautiously bearish. Absent a sudden policy reversal or strongly returning export demand, the same pressures that pushed prices lower in October and November are likely to prevail. Market trading sentiments are likely to witness movements as per necessity only. These twin dynamics suggest that export prices will remain under downward pressure, with the potential for further gradual erosion as the year closes.
