When global agricultural markets enter a new season, U.S. soybean oil prices continue to witness an upward thrust in April and throughout the month of May 2025. The new USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for the 2025/26 marketing year states various bullish signals, citing the tightening of soybean supplies that in turn had a direct impact on the soybean oil segment.

Various market experts across the US market states that even as the U.S. soybean harvest is quiet close to an estimated harvest of 4.34 billion bushels—essentially equivalent to that of last season—the nature of demand continues to change. While both domestic crushing facilities and export trade increase, aggregate soybean supply drops by almost 15% against the 2024/25 season. This tightening of supply continue to channel into stronger soybean oil prices, as processors will continue to face the shortage of feed raw soybeans.

While, soybean oil markets continue to react quickly to constricting supply fundamentals. With crush levels anticipated to increase as a result of increased demand for biofuels and renewable diesel, soybean oil persists to be in a high demand. Analysts further continue to  forecast soybean oil prices to remain on the upward side, underpinned by robust consumption both in the domestic market and abroad. Specifically, renewable energy requirements in the U.S. will further support demand for soybean oil as a key feedstock, reducing supplies further.

Worldwide, additionally South American exporters  increases their raw soybean export share, but soybean oil production and export capabilities in such countries fall short of compensating for increasingly firming conditions in the United States. Meanwhile, Chinese soybean import demand also remained strong, to a record 112 million metric tons. This is an endless appetite that continue to spill over into soybean oil demand as China seeks to secure edible oil sources in the uncertainty of changing global supply.

While, disruption in trade and shipping logistics, particularly with regard to river shipment or port congestion, also add to volatility in the soybean oil market. As a result, market players continue to  keep an eye on policy changes, especially those influencing the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other green incentives. If blending requirements for biofuels rise, the move will support the already robust upward trend in the price of soybean oil.

In short, soybean oil remains in a stage of conservative bullishness fueled by constrictive U.S. supplies, strong global demand, and increased attention from the renewable energy market. Throughout April and may 2025, soybean oil prices sustained an  increasing trajectory, mirroring structural shifts in supply and demand. Traders, processors, and end-users alike will need to keep these phenomena under close watch as the soybean oil market prepares for a potentially turbulent—but lucrative—year ahead.