US soybean oil export prices saw a modest recovery in November 2025, driven by supply bottlenecks, improved demand from major importing nations, and crush margins. Seasonal supply bottlenecks, such as riverine transport constraints and weather events, momentarily reduced the US soybean oil export supply, leading certain Asian refiners to boost their short-term purchases. Moreover, a small increase in the international vegetable oil industry and cautious processing of US crushers aided in supporting the price of soybean oil. Even with the increase in November, market analysts forecast a price drop as December comes to a close. Normalizing logistics, high crush rates, and ample world soybean oil stocks are anticipated to drive exportable supplies lower. Seasonal patterns also favor softer pricing, with buyers holding back procurement ahead of the new year. While the November rebound provided temporary relief to exporters, fundamentals point toward renewed soybean oil price softness, with the industry now focusing on early 2026 demand drivers, including biodiesel usage and South American crop developments.
US soybean oil export price levels showed a slight recovery in November 2025 with prices rising by 0.3%, thereby putting an end to the considerable period of limited trade and low prices that had characterized the market. According to market analysts, this revival in Soybean oil market can be attributed to the combined effects of temporary supply shortages, improved demand in the short term, and better crush margins. However, despite the rise that was seen in November, industry watchers point out that the soybean oil market may soften once again as the fourth quarter of the year draws to a close in December.
The most significant basis for the November recovery was the tighter-than-expected supply in the US Gulf and Pacific Northwest. Seasonal logistical constraints, such as river drafts and weather, slowed exports. These conditions, although not severe, caused soybean oil prices to increase as entities sought to obtain products prior to the end of the year. Traders reported that some Asian traders, especially in India and South Korea, engaged in short-covering buying for soybean oil to protect against possible disruptions towards the end of the season.
Another major force behind the up-move in soybean oil prices was the modest improvement in international vegetable oil sentiment witnessed during the initial weeks of November. Even though the palm oil and sunflower oil markets continued to be languid, the modest gains helped the cause This offered some leeway in US soybean oil prices to rise slightly, particularly as crude oil markets stabilized and the requirements for blending biofuels in major exporting states provided continued domestic usage.
In the crush market dynamics, processor behavior also played an important role. Although there was a large crop of soybeans in the US in 2025, processors were more cautious due to pinched meal margins in the early part of the quarter. This helped to slow down the rate of soybean oil production, providing exporters a stronger basis to raise their offers. Some analysts also pointed out that there were not many opportunities for forward contracting for shipments from January to March, thereby encouraging more soybean oil buyers to make purchases within the window of November.
However, the tone of the market is already set to change as December progresses. With logistics easing, barge travel returning to normal, and crush ratios forecast to increase once again, exportable soybean oil inventories are set to improve. This is likely to put pressure on prices as the quarter draws to a close. Secondly, world demand for vegetable oils is still sluggish, softened by economic downturns in Europe and Asia, together with sufficient soybean oil inventories held by major importers who stocked up at the start of the year.
Seasonal patterns also favor softer pricing. Historically, December often marks a cooling-off period in US soybean oil exports as end-users hold back from additional procurement ahead of the new year. This trend appears poised to continue, with several large buyers signaling that they have adequate stocks through early 2026.
Although the November recovery provided some respite for exporters, the majority of market participants believe that this trend is only temporary. As the fourth quarter draws to a close, market fundamentals indicate that another soybean oil price slump is on the horizon due to rising supply dynamics, returned logistics, and tempered global demand. Market attention will now turn to the first quarter of 2026 trade patterns, where biodiesel demand and Southern Hemisphere crop patterns are expected to take center stage.
